The Fed just held rates steady, and half of its own officials already think they'll have to raise them by year-end.
In the latest set of Fed projections, nine of 18 policymakers penciled in at least one rate hike for 2026, with six of them seeing two or more hikes - even as the central bank has paused its cutting cycle.
That makes it one of the sharpest internal splits the Fed has shown in years.
A Split Inside The Fed
Every few months, Fed officials submit their best guess for where interest rates should be over the next few years, creating a chart known as the dot plot.
For 2026, the dots are scattered all over the page, with nine of the 18 officials who submitted projections expecting rates to hold steady or fall further while the other nine see at least one hike before year-end.
Most years, the dots cluster fairly tightly because officials are usually moving in the same direction.
That kind of disagreement is rare, and it tells investors the central bank itself isn't sure where this cycle ends.
The Fed cut rates three times last year, bringing its benchmark range down to 3.50%-3.75% from its highest level in over two decades - but it has now held there for four consecutive meetings in 2026.
This was the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who declined to submit his own dot plot projection, breaking with tradition.
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Why Some Officials Are Worried
The case for cutting is straightforward - the job market has cooled, growth has slowed, and inflation has come down from its peak.
But it hasn't come down all the way, with prices in services, housing, and parts of the economy tied to tariffs still climbing faster than the Fed's 2% target.
Core PCE inflation has hovered near 3.3% for months, which is closer to the Fed's old comfort zone than its actual goal.
Tariffs have added another layer of pressure, since they push up the cost of imported goods and feed into broader prices over time.
Several Fed officials have said in recent speeches that they worry more about cutting too fast than too slow.
Some policymakers are looking at that and asking a simple question: what happens if the Fed cuts too far and inflation picks back up?
Their answer is that the Fed would have to hike again, and they'd rather flag the risk now than scramble later.
What To Watch
The next dot plot will show whether this split widens or fades.
If more officials shift toward seeing 2026 hikes, markets will start pricing it in, which usually means higher bond yields and pressure on stocks that depend on cheap money.
Tech and growth stocks tend to feel that pressure first, since their valuations rely on low rates stretching far into the future.
Adding to the uncertainty, the minutes from the Fed's April meeting also showed several members openly questioning whether an easing bias belonged in the statement at all.
For now, the message from inside the Fed is mixed: a hold today, possibly hikes before year-end.
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