A warmer setup would take some strain off Europe's gas use this heating season. Commodity Weather Group is particularly confident, saying this fall and winter could rank among Europe's warmest on record. Its current outlook for December through February sits in the mildest tier, with risks tilted toward even less need for heating, according to meteorologist William Henneberg.
AccuWeather likewise expects above-normal temperatures across much of Europe through a large share of autumn and winter. Atmospheric G2 projects temperatures about 1C to 2C above normal persisting into late autumn and continuing into early winter. Vaisala's Matthew Dross anticipates a generally gentle start in October and November, noting seasonal models are currently "very warm" for winter overall.
Such patterns would ease storage drawdowns and conserve supply for January and February, a timeframe that several forecasters flag as having the highest likelihood of cold spells.
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There is debate over how much of the warm signal ties back to El Niño, which is shaping up as one of the most powerful on record. Henneberg and his Commodity Weather Group colleague Cade Groman include that strong El Niño, plus unusually warm Atlantic and global oceans, as reasons to favor warmth. Jason Nicholls, AccuWeather's lead international forecaster, also cites El Niño as a contributing factor.
However, according to MetDesk meteorologist Amy Hodgson, El Niño's influence should be relatively subdued at the start of the season, even as her team still leans warm for broad swaths of northern and western Europe. She adds that the likelihood of a sudden stratospheric warming episode rises later in the winter, a setup that can raise the chances of cold snaps across Europe. "We feel the greatest cold risk for Europe will be in the back end of winter," Hodgson said. AccuWeather also leaves room for a cold spell in mid to late winter, but expects any such episode to be short-lived, while Commodity Weather Group assigns the greatest cold risks even later, into March and April.
Weather is only half the story. The US-Iran war has disrupted supply, with liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East halted. As a result, Europe's storage sits at 67% compared with a typical seasonal level of 83%. Traders are scrambling to top up inventories before peak demand, and since the end of June, Europe's gas benchmark is up more than 75%.
If the warmth shows up, it buys time by curbing demand and slowing drawdowns, preserving more gas for a potential midwinter squeeze. But with several teams flagging a higher chance of late-season cold, budgets could still get tested by a February or March jolt. Translation for households: this winter's energy costs may hinge as much on weekly weather maps as on market headlines.
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