Gold is up 6% in four sessions to near $4,335 an ounce, and now it faces two big tests in the same week.
The US and Iran are about to sign a peace deal that could push prices lower, while new Fed chair Kevin Warsh runs his first policy meeting on Wednesday.
Gold has climbed more than 6% over the past four sessions, one of its strongest stretches in recent memory.
The rally is being driven by the Iran conflict and the energy supply crunch it created, which have sent inflation soaring and pushed investors into gold as a safe haven.
The terms are starting to leak out. Iran would sell oil right away, get eventual access to its frozen assets, and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by Friday.
That strait - the shipping lane that carries a big share of the world's oil - has been a key choke point for energy markets during the conflict.
President Trump has promised the Strait of Hormuz can fully reopen by Friday, though some European allies remain wary of the risks.
Reopening the strait would ease the energy crunch driving inflation higher, which gives central banks room to stop raising rates.
And that's bad news for gold.
Why? Gold pays no interest, so when bonds offer high yields, holding gold means missing out on that income.
When central banks hike rates, gold tends to fall - and when they cut, gold tends to rise.
If the deal holds, the inflation story that's been pushing gold higher unwinds fast.
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The other shoe drops Wednesday, when new Fed chair Kevin Warsh runs his first policy meeting.
Markets are watching every word for clues on how he plans to handle inflation, with the broad expectation that rates stay on hold.
But the rate decision is not really the question - what matters more is what he signals next.
A softer tone on inflation could send gold higher, while a tougher stance could pile onto whatever the peace deal does to the price.
Standard Chartered analysts wrote that gold's firming correlation with real yields shows focus has shifted to the Fed meeting.
Real yields are the return on bonds after subtracting inflation, and gold typically moves the opposite way.
The same analysts said a US-Iran pact "bodes well for gold finding a price floor sooner rather than later."
In other words, the floor is coming, but the ride down may be bumpy.
Gold already dipped below its 200-day moving average earlier this month, a level traders watch as a warning sign for more selling ahead.
Beyond gold, silver ran 10% over the same four sessions, while platinum and palladium barely budged and the dollar slipped slightly.
Watch the Fed's statement for any shift in tone on inflation, and watch oil markets for signs Iranian crude is actually flowing again.
Both decisions land before Friday.
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