Citgo lifted its 2026 operating profit target by $2 billion, now projecting full-year EBITDA of $7.7 to $8 billion, referring to earnings excluding interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. That compares with the $5.8 billion the company guided in its second quarter earnings in August.
The revised view and preliminary third quarter figures were circulated privately to investors on Friday, not released publicly. Latin America-focused investor Jorge Piedrahita posted portions of the materials on social media.
Those materials also say Citgo plans to publish third quarter results on November 12 and expects EBITDA of $4.5 to $4.8 billion for the period spanning the first nine months through September 30.
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Refiners have been cashing in as geopolitics tighten supplies. The outlook increase comes amid sector-wide strength, aided by turmoil involving Iran and by spillover impacts from Russia's war on Ukraine that have lifted refiners' earnings. ExxonMobil signaled last week it is likely to report record refining earnings for the third quarter, and the three largest US refiners earned more than $10 billion in the second quarter.
Because of the US war on Iran, crude oil has surged, but gasoline and diesel have risen even more sharply. Those higher fuel prices have filtered into travel and food and added upward pressure on inflation. Brent crude traded above $110 a barrel on Monday, a five-month high.
Citgo, a privately owned refiner, runs three large US fuel-making plants. According to the investor materials, it held roughly $5.6 billion in cash as of the end of the business day on October 15. The company declined to comment on the document or the revised outlook. "Current refining markets continue to reflect a tight supply-demand balance and a geopolitical risk premium," the company said in the document.
Citgo remains entangled in a multi-year fight involving Venezuela, the US government, and investors concerning a sale to repay obligations owed by parent Petróleos de Venezuela SA. In November, a US federal judge approved Amber Energy - affiliated with Elliott Investment Management - as the top bid, valuing the refineries and related assets at $5.9 billion.
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