Kenyans overseas sent a record $5.04 billion in 2025. By the end of September this year, inflows had eased 0.2% to $3.77 billion, Central Bank of Kenya data show. If the final quarter only matches the average seen so far, 2026 would land a bit below last year's tally.
David Precious, a senior market analyst with London-based EBC Financial Group, said, "The reduction in inflows over January to August reflects weaker transfers from North America, which outweighed higher inflows from Europe and the rest of the world." He pointed to several drags: a 1% US federal tax that began in January on international transfers, new Saudi transaction taxes, and softer Middle East inflows linked to the conflict.
The Central Bank of Kenya has noted the Middle East conflict's impact but still expects this year's total to edge above last year. Governor Kamau Thugge said, "In the last two months we have seen some recovery in remittances," adding, "We have been very cautious about our projections for remittances and only projecting an increase of 0.7% for this year, followed by 3% next year." Anthony Mulisa, group treasurer for KCB Group Plc, underscored how much Kenya leans on the US for inflows, saying it accounts for 55% of inward remittances and that higher gas prices are straining budgets. "When the cost of living goes up, definitely the amounts that these guys are sending back home is supposed to reduce," he said.
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Remittances are Kenya's biggest source of foreign exchange, so softer inflows can ripple into the currency, consumer spending, and bank transaction volumes. With the US providing 55% of the total and taxes plus conflict pressuring transfers, investors exposed to Kenyan banks or domestically focused companies should track the trend line against the central bank's 0.7% growth target for this year and 3% for next.
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