Danielle Smith says she called the referendum to put the separation question to rest. Earlier, her government eased the rules for province-wide petition drives, and separatists amassed over 220,000 verified signatures this year, which was sufficient to compel the question onto the agenda. A court stopped that petition, so the province wrote its own question.
The ballot asks: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" Picking the second option is a vote to hold another referendum later. The secession vote has dominated provincial politics for months and pulled in the public. After early worries about low participation, 1.36 million people had cast ballots through mail and advance polls.
Pro-independence organizers argue that Alberta, the driver of most of Canada's oil production, should control its resource wealth without decisions made elsewhere. Their pitch also urged even non-separatists to back the second option to gain leverage to boost provincial powers.
Separatist leaders say they will keep going even if they lose badly.
"It's a movement. It's a culture. It's not going away," organizer Cory Morgan told roughly 1,000 people at a weekend rally outside the legislature in Edmonton.
"This is a wave in Alberta that's going to sustain." Morgan, who heads the Pathway to Independence group, has advocated independence for over two decades; during the early 2000s, he became a member of a separatist party. He recalled that, at the time, they would likely have attracted only 10% to 15% support in a referendum.
Many supporters are inside Smith's United Conservative Party, in power since 2019. Some separatists are now seeking to oust her, stoking concerns the party might fracture before a provincial election slated for next year.
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Smith's government has also taken a side on nine other referendum questions. Among the measures are curbing immigration into the province, imposing fees on non-permanent residents for provincial services, and mandating citizenship ID to cast a ballot. That direction contrasts with Smith's stance two years ago, when she said she wanted to double Alberta's population by 2050 by welcoming newcomers.
Polls point to a remain win on Monday, but the outcome may not deliver the closure Smith wants. Abacus Data said Saturday that 68% of Albertans intended to vote to remain in Canada, consistent with other surveys. Other polls indicate the second option could reach only 30%, which University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young said is "enough to make pitches to potential funders, within the province or outside the province, that that was a good start and now you need to push forward for the next referendum."
Young said Smith has used this process to let separatists "let off steam." In her view, "There's no evidence that letting off steam means that the issues are settled or can go away," and the campaign has given separatists new incentives to mobilize, raise money and build organization. In a final effort to energize the pro-Canada side, Prime Minister Mark Carney toured Alberta's three biggest cities. Speaking in Calgary last week before several thousand people, he said, "This is not poker." "A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and for Canadians."
The vote is unfolding after a tragedy over the weekend. A blaze tore through a military base in Alberta while a training exercise was underway, leaving four Canadian soldiers dead and wounding dozens more. On Sunday in Edmonton, Smith said Nineteen people were in critical condition.
Federalists have argued since the vote was called that it is chilling investment as companies wait for clarity. They point to Quebec's sovereignty drives in 1980 and 1995, after which some Quebec-based firms, including Bank of Montreal and Sun Life Financial Inc., moved head offices to Toronto. Smith says she wants the issue decided by Monday rather than "kicking the can down the road" and extending uncertainty. Some Canadian leaders worry the longer-term effect could be to cement separatism in Alberta, similar to Quebec since the 1970s.
The bottom line: polls favor remain and early turnout is strong, but even a minority showing for separation could sustain organizing, fundraising and policy pressure that holders of Alberta risk should keep on their radar.
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