Trump set aside a recently enacted tariff measure designed to curb Russian energy flows, with aides framing the step as a way to strike a diesel deal with Moscow. They argue that letting Russian diesel reach US and global markets could ease prices before voters head to the polls.
Officials do not expect a quick price reaction. The pricing impact could grow if Russian shipments resume in a sustained way by year-end, which might narrow global supply gaps provided Moscow can keep exports flowing despite Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.
Congress is out until after the midterms, leaving little chance of an immediate legislative block on the diesel arrangement.
Critics contend the waiver sidesteps a sanctions statute bearing the imprint of the late Senator Lindsey Graham. Senator Ted Cruz said on Fox News he believed the administration should have looked elsewhere to cut costs, pointing to more imports from Canada or relaxing renewable-fuel rules. "I wish the president hadn't done it, I think it was a mistake," he said. "The current path, unfortunately, just benefits Putin."
Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who plans to leave the Senate when his term ends, pressed on social media, "What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand?" He argued Trump could tackle prices by addressing Iran rather than "doing a solid for Vladimir Putin."
A bipartisan group of 12 senators urged Trump in a letter earlier this week to scrap the diesel deal and enforce the Graham law. "Allowing Russian-origin diesel into global markets will offer limited to no relief to Americans," they wrote, warning the proceeds would help finance Russia's war and deepen ties with China, Iran and North Korea. Republican signers included Tillis, Mitch McConnell, John Cornyn, Susan Collins, Alan Armstrong and Lisa Murkowski.
Jeanne Shaheen, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, joined six other senators in a separate letter opposing the move, writing that Congress "explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022 to prevent American dollars from financing Putin's brutal war against Ukraine." In a Sunday statement, Democratic Senators Shaheen, Richard Blumenthal and Ron Wyden, and Republicans Collins, Murkowski, Tillis and John Curtis said Trump's decision to permit Russian diesel imports conflicts with that law.
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House action is brewing too. In the House, a bipartisan bloc - Democrats alongside a single GOP member - put forward legislation on Friday aimed at halting Russian diesel imports, but in a Republican-run chamber its prospects are slim and a veto could still have to be surmounted. Retiring Nebraska Republican Representative Don Bacon co-sponsored the bill and wrote, "Many of us won't fund these things knowing he is propping up a dictator's invasion and throwing an ally under the bus." Representative Brian Fitzpatrick said he would propose legislation to bar purchases of Russian oil. Representative French Hill said he requested a classified briefing on the decision and argued the US ought to increase economic pressure on Russia.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said there is "nothing America First" about the diesel deal, adding it gives the Russian economy "life support" while "Americans need relief from skyrocketing prices."
Darline Graham - appointed to her late brother's seat and seeking a full term - stated she is proud of the legislation named for Lindsey Graham and intends to talk with Trump during his South Carolina stop next week. "The president and I share the same goal, which is to end the war and get gas and diesel prices down. The sanctions bill is one of the tolls he can use to do that. It's up to him whether or not he choses to do so," she told local reporters. "Personally, I would keep the pressure on Russia to end the war and get the gas prices down because I don't trust Putin and I don't trust Russia."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the waiver, writing, "At the time when the Russians launched such a massive strike against our energy sector, in America, regrettably, a decision was made to completely ignore the Lindsey Graham law." He added, "A US sanctions blackout, easing pressure on the aggressor, financial rewards for Putin - all of this only encourages him to keep attacking."
Frictions between Washington and Kyiv have increased since Trump announced the diesel plan last week. This week, Ukrainian defense officials reported that Starshield, SpaceX's military-grade satellite service, was delivering reduced connection speeds. According to a US official on Friday, Trump had not directed any restrictions on Ukraine's access to that technology.
Near term, officials see little effect on pump prices. The caveat is time: if Russian diesel consistently returns by year-end, supply deficits could shrink and weigh on global prices. Policy risk is high, though. With Congress out until after the midterms and bills already forming to block imports, headlines could whipsaw expectations for energy policy and trade flows.
For energy investors, that points to muted immediate price moves with elevated policy volatility into year-end. The White House is targeting lower fuel costs before the election, while opponents in both parties argue the move risks funneling revenue to Russia and running afoul of the 2022 import ban.
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