Two years ago, a 30-second TV spot in Harlingen often ran under $500. Last week, Talarico's bid for the US Senate spent $12,000 to run a 30-second spot on the local Fox station while a Major League Baseball game was on - a rate 26 times higher than a comparable buy in the state's 2024 Senate race, per Federal Communications Commission filings.
Buying time might be even harder than affording it. "You can't buy it," GOP strategist Vinny Minchillo said. "It's closed out." In Houston, nightly news rates at an NBC affiliate have nearly doubled from 2024, and Ken Paxton spent $60,000 for a Sunday Night Football spot slated for late October. The ad surge is so ubiquitous that TikTok clips joking about it are pulling in hundreds of thousands of likes, and one frequently aired piece has made Dallas-area conservative activist Miriam Evans a recognizable face.
As early voting begins Monday, with just over two weeks remaining, Republicans and Democrats have already funneled more than $500 million into the Paxton versus Talarico showdown, positioning it among the most expensive non-presidential contests as both sides saturate TV and social media across Texas's 20 media markets.
Musk's America PAC has put $22.7 million directly into the race, and he also made a $158 million contribution to the Senate Leadership Fund, a major GOP group backing Texas PAC, the top spender. Texas PAC spent $77 million in September, added $79.4 million in October, and has a little over $3 million booked for early November, per AdImpact.
On the other side, Talarico and his allies have aired more than $95 million in ads, including roughly $82 million from his campaign. National Democrats have been more hesitant, deterred by the price of reaching 19 million registered voters spread across the state's many media markets. "We're being outspent, there's no need to deny that, and that's not what you want," said Katherine Fischer, co-founder of Texas Majority PAC. She said the deluge has not moved the polls much so far.
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At 37, state representative and seminarian Talarico has a narrow advantage in polls while pursuing what would be the first Senate victory for a Texas Democrat since 1988. If Talarico prevails, it would deal a blow to President Donald Trump, who backed Paxton, 63, in the GOP primary instead of four-term Senator John Cornyn. On Oct. 15, Trump went on social media to criticize Cornyn alongside longtime GOP strategist Karl Rove, alleging they were undermining Paxton.
Republicans still start with an edge in a state that Trump carried by about 14 points in 2024, yet the party has had trouble uniting behind Paxton. Other Republicans, including Rove and former Texas House Speaker Joe Straus, have questioned Paxton's strength atop the ticket. At last month's Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Trump mocked Paxton's appearance and speaking style after a six-minute speech, while also praising his record as attorney general. According to the New York Times, Paxton later told donors that the convention hurt his polling.
"We'll see whether the spending can help in the final two and a half weeks of this campaign," he said.
The bottom line: ad prices are jumping, dollars are piling in, and late money looks aimed at turnout more than persuasion. For your portfolio, that means local broadcasters, digital platforms, and campaign vendors could see a concentrated revenue burst as Texas's air war hits its peak.
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