South Africa's business mood broadly held firm in September. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry reported its index at 134.3, a small slip from August's 135.1, but still 8.9 points higher than July.
According to the chamber, "the high number of overseas tourists and expanded sales of new vehicles remained major year-on-year positive drivers of business sentiment." It added that "the continuing high international price of precious metals remained in support of business confidence."
Now eight months in, the Iran war is choking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up crude and other commodity prices. Against that backdrop, October saw local gasoline prices hit an all-time high, putting the squeeze on households and firms.
The chamber warned that rising fuel and financing expenses could stall the latest uptick in sentiment. "This places exceptional pressure on households' spending and business costs and viability," Sacci said.
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Last month, the central bank lifted the benchmark by a quarter of a percentage point to 7.25%, pointing to inflationary strain linked to the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. That tightens financial conditions just as fuel costs climb.
The bottom line: tourism, vehicle sales, and precious metals are tailwinds, while energy and financing are headwinds. In plain English, consumer plays face a margin and demand squeeze, while exporters and miners benefit if metal prices stay elevated.
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