Starting Oct. 7, drivers in Gauteng will pay 3.33 rand more per liter for 95-octane, according to the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. The increase lifts the pump price to 30.25 rand per liter, a new high. Diesel is also moving up, with the wholesale price poised to climb as high as 3.24 per liter.
In the prior month, crude neared about $100 a barrel as attacks went back and forth between the US and Iran, and a drone strike shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline. Those global shocks are filtering through South Africa's monthly fuel-price adjustments. The squeeze tends to be sharper across much of Africa, where households devote a larger share of income to getting around because road travel dominates and public transport is limited.
Fuel prices are one of the fastest ways a global shock reaches a household budget. Market Briefs tracks that chain free every morning.
Since the war began in late February, higher fuel costs have helped lift consumer-price growth to 4.4%, leading the South African Reserve Bank to implement two rate increases this year. If fuel remains high, that may push the bank to tighten once more in order to protect its 3% inflation target. Fuel directly accounts for almost 4% of the CPI and also feeds into transportation and food costs.
Policymakers see headline inflation climbing past 5% later this year and into early next year, then moderating as the fuel shock wanes, and getting back to 3% near the end of 2027. The government initially cut fuel taxes to soften the blow, but the three-month relief expired in June. In 2022, South Africa liquidated part of its strategic oil reserves to pay for a subsidy, and last year lawmakers flagged concerns about insufficient crude stockpiles.
If you drive, budget pressure likely builds fast when fuel hits records, and higher transport costs can ripple into grocery bills too. The outlook suggests a bumpy few months for inflation before relief later on, so keep an eye on how recurring expenses change and how that affects what you can consistently set aside or invest.
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