Officials are working on another extension of the curbs on most diesel shipments past September, people with knowledge of the talks said. One person described the likely next step as another month - and possibly longer. As of last week, Moscow was reviewing a fresh one-month rollover. The Energy Ministry did not provide comment right away when asked.
Russia put the export limits in place in July after a wave of Ukrainian strikes pushed the nation's oil-processing rates to multiyear lows. Initially billed as temporary, it was extended into August and then left in place through the end of September while the attacks persisted. First presented as short-term, the policy was renewed for August and then maintained up to the end of September because the attacks kept happening.
Before the restrictions, Russia supplied roughly 10% of global seaborne diesel. Pulling those barrels compounded an already tight backdrop from disrupted Middle Eastern flows, adding more support to prices. In Europe, diesel's premium over crude is around $84 a barrel, compared with about $28 at the end of February.
At that time, the US and Israel had not yet launched the war on Iran, nor had Ukraine ramped up its strikes on Russian refineries to unprecedented levels. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg indicate the Middle East war has taken more diesel off the market than the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has recently argued the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rather than the Iran war, is chiefly behind the rise in prices, and asserted that Moscow and Kyiv had reached an understanding to cease strikes on each other's energy infrastructure.
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Neither capital confirmed such a deal and the strikes have carried on.
Two levers are steering diesel right now: how long Russia keeps its export limits in place, and how the Middle East conflict continues to affect flows. With the premium still far above February levels, the length of Russia's next extension will matter for where prices settle.
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