Soybeans look on track
China has moved past the midpoint toward its 25 million ton soybean commitment, with buying jumping after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in May. Late last week, China booked at least four more US cargoes, according to Bloomberg. The appeal is obvious: soybeans are central to China's feed and cooking oil needs. At StoneX Group Inc. in Singapore, agricultural broker Kang Wei Cheang summed it up this way: "My expectation is that China ultimately meets the soybean commitment, particularly because soybean imports remain critical to China's feed and vegetable oil sectors, and the volume is manageable within its overall import requirements."
State-run firms have driven the recent bean purchases. If profitability improves, private traders could return, which would help both annual goals. The soybean pledge came with last October's truce, while the extra purchase plan was set in May.
Both run annually through 2028, and the $17 billion number is prorated for this year. It is also unclear whether that dollar figure can include soybeans, which normally dominate the farm trade.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data show soybeans are the top US farm export to China, and the 2026 figures referenced cover January through July.
The $17 billion add-on is the hard part
Progress on the at-least $17 billion in added US farm buys has mostly stalled, and traders say tariff relief could be the key to kick-starting activity. Kang said the target is "achievable if political relations remain constructive and tariff barriers continue to ease." Hitting it would likely mean China shifts purchases away from suppliers such as Brazil, Argentina, Canada and Australia.
In the run-up to this week's summit, officials from Washington and Beijing talked about lowering tariffs on items such as American energy and farm products. Beyond soybeans, China has more sourcing options. Imports of sorghum, used in animal feed and to make baijiu, have held up this year, but big post-May orders for other staples have not materialized.
According to USDA data, there are at present zero logged US sales of corn or wheat for the 2026-27 season. Total Farm Marketing analyst Naomi Blohm said China's push to diversify still leaves room for crops such as corn, cotton, wheat and sorghum.
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Farmers, prices and the broader backdrop
On the ground, producers are watching closely. Missouri farmer Marty Richardson was blunt: "I know they like grain sorghum, but we haven't got $17 billion of grain sorghum in the United States, so it can't all be sorghum." He recently started his corn harvest and said better yields only help "until we give it all back in diesel fuel and fertilizer." Corn futures are near a three year high as extreme weather and slower Black Sea shipments lift prices. In Louisiana, Kennedy Rice Mill CEO Meryl Kennedy Farr sees a chance for US rice to finally gain traction in China, saying shipments have been "basically nonexistent" and adding that making rice part of the talks "would be huge for our industry."
Beef shows how market access does not guarantee sales. China renewed permits for hundreds of US beef plants in May, yet shipments have barely recovered as higher US prices and weak Chinese demand limited buying. More broadly, lousy weather and the Russia-Ukraine war have driven crop prices higher, while the Iran conflict has added to fuel and fertilizer costs.
Inside China, a slower economy and ample domestic supplies are damping demand. Tariffs imposed by Beijing on US agricultural products have likewise curbed commerce, affecting soybeans as well. Even so, US beans are hard to substitute given America's outsized role in global supply, said Even Pay, a director at the Beijing-based advisory firm Trivium China.
According to Tim Lust, CEO of the National Sorghum Producers Association, US-facing add-on tariffs are a drag, and muted buying by feed mills and alcohol distillers has weighed on the market as well. On Friday, his organization delivered a letter to Trump pressing to include sorghum in the $17 billion plan. "As we look back over the last several years, we've had inconsistencies," Lust said.
"So that's one of the things that we're hopeful out of this, that we get that more consistent trade volume." Minnesota farmer Nathan Serbus isn't banking on splashy deals and just hopes nothing roils the market as he brings in what could be one of his best corn crops. "Just as long as they don't come out and we go to a trade war for no reason," Serbus said.
On the policy front, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hailed "very successful" discussions with Chinese counterparts that addressed artificial intelligence, trade and investment in the lead-up to the summit. This week, Xi Jinping is set to reach Washington with a straightforward way to curry favor with the Trump administration - potentially pledging to restart roughly $6 billion per year in US liquefied natural gas trade. Other signals are mixed: Last month, shipments of rare-earth magnets from China to the US declined, China's electricity consumption topped 1 trillion kilowatt-hours in August, and Beijing criticized a new US law that tightens sanctions on Russia and broadens trade measures on Iran. Separately, Beijing unveiled a countrywide campaign aimed at cracking down on false reporting by environmental monitoring institutions.
What this means for your wallet
If you care about food prices and farm communities, soybeans are the clearest read. China looks likely to finish the bean buy, which would keep parts of the US ag economy humming. The add-on is tougher. It probably takes tariff relief and a shift away from other suppliers, so gains beyond soy hinge on what comes out of Washington this week and whether private Chinese buyers step in.
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