What Trump said and why this site is in the spotlight
Speaking at a midterm Republican convention on Wednesday, Donald Trump said, "We notice there's a little activity at Pickaxe. I would advise Iran not to get cute because we will have to hit them very hard." He later told reporters he did not expect the U.S.-Iran war to wind down before November's midterm elections, adding, "I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer." He has previously threatened to strike the underground tunnel network known in Farsi as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La.
Pickaxe Mountain sits near Iran's badly damaged Natanz uranium enrichment site and is viewed as one of the remaining pieces of Tehran's nuclear program, raising worries in Washington that Iran could try to rebuild capabilities there.
What the new imagery shows
The Center for Strategic and International Studies published an analysis Wednesday saying 2026 has seen the most road activity at Pickaxe Mountain in the site's history and "a clear surge" in building work. CSIS said recent images suggest the focus has moved away from heavy excavation to what looks like interior construction along with ongoing reinforcement on the outside. The think tank called the bustle at a location about two kilometers, or 1.2 miles, from the older Natanz complex "suspicious." It also said it could neither verify nor dismiss claims that centrifuges have been relocated into the mountain.
Iran has repeatedly said it is not pursuing nuclear weapons. A spokesperson for Iran's Embassy in London could not be reached right away to answer a CNBC request for comment.
The broader clash and the oil read
In June 2025, three Iranian nuclear facilities - Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan - were hit by U.S. forces, an action that, according to American officials at the time, materially slowed Tehran's route to a weapon. This week, Iran stated it fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan and also targeted 10 ships in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally handles about 20% of global oil flows.
Earlier in the week, U.S. Central Command reported the destruction of five Iranian oil tankers, saying the action followed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship on two consecutive days. The flurry of tanker incidents around Hormuz, along with intensifying battles between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, has traders bracing for potential supply snags.
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On Thursday morning, international benchmark Brent crude futures for November delivery were up 0.9% at $102.10 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 1% to $97.01.
What this could mean for your money
Trump later said some near term consumer pain in the U.S. would be worth it to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote Thursday that whether this oil rally sticks or fizzles will "largely" come down to how much China buys. If the conflict starts interrupting flows, they warned, the market could tighten more quickly.
Translation for your wallet: prices at the pump and energy-sensitive costs can swing when Hormuz headlines heat up. Keeping an eye on crude moves, Chinese demand signals, and any confirmed disruption through the strait can help you understand where inflation pressure might show up next.
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