Copper and industry weakened in July. Copper output registered 403,424 metric tons, falling 9.8% from June and 9.4% from July 2023, the lowest July level since 2011. Industrial production dropped 5.1% from a year earlier and manufacturing slid 4.9%, both below the Bloomberg survey medians of -1.9% and -4.6%.
Retail sales rose 2.2% year over year, roughly half the 4.3% projection. According to the central bank, the second quarter saw GDP flat, following a 0.3% decline in the first. Data published Friday indicated the jobless rate rose to 9.5% overall, while female unemployment reached 10.3%.
A series of winter storms in July swept central Chile, killing over a dozen people, closing schools and triggering localized mining stoppages. Because of the weather, Antofagasta Plc's Los Pelambres and Lundin Mining Corp.'s Caserones were halted temporarily, and Lundin's Candelaria experienced short-lived interruptions. Antofagasta later cut its full-year copper guidance, while Lundin trimmed its outlook after a second storm brought further disruptions in August.
The copper slump compounds an already disappointing year for domestic supply, with first-half production running well below year-earlier levels. Congress approved pro-market measures in July that include tax cuts and investment guarantees, though President José Antonio Kast said they won't boost growth immediately. Economists have pared back 2026 growth expectations to near 1% amid elevated unemployment, heavy rainfall and fragile confidence following a large fuel price increase. Reflecting on the late-July storms, Scotiabank Chile chief economist Jorge Selaive wrote on X that the data show impacts across "mining, education, commerce and transportation at least," adding that "2026 GDP growth of between 0.5% and 0.75% is becoming more probable."
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Weak mining output and softer industrial activity, alongside a jobless rate edging higher, point to slower momentum and add risk to Chile-linked exposures. Copper producers and assets tied to domestic demand may face pressure as supply remains constrained and growth prospects for 2026 are revised down.
