The Stock Is Flying. So Why Are Bears Circling?
Bets against the Atlanta Braves' Class C stock have risen threefold over the past twelve months, reaching 6.8% of all available shares. That's the highest level seen since Atlanta Braves Holdings separated from Liberty Media in 2023. This position amounts to a roughly $170 million wager against the team.
The bearish bets are being placed as the stock touched an all-time high last week. Shares have gained 34% this year, with sports franchise valuations climbing across the board.
The Labor Fight Behind the Bets
The current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1. Around the end of May, the players' union declined a plan that would have set a $245 million ceiling on salaries. Since that rejection, the amount of short interest has risen by approximately 100%.
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In 1994, a similar conflict over a salary cap led to a players' strike, and the World Series was ultimately canceled.
"It seems like general expectation is for a lockout and you'd imagine shorts are looking forward to December, there being a lockout and no certainty on when the next MLB game will be played," said Sam Pierson, who serves as research director at S3 Partners.
Sports Franchise Valuations in Focus
Sports franchise valuations have been a hot topic this summer. The LA Lakers were sold for a record $12.5 billion. Apollo Global Management acquired an equity stake in the New York Yankees. Bloomberg said on Thursday that Arctos Partners, which is backed by KKR & Co., was negotiating to buy a 10% stake in the Atlanta Falcons.
Earlier this year, the San Diego Padres fetched $3.9 billion in a sale. The dealmaker behind that transaction, Inner Circle Sports, was subsequently acquired by William Blair & Co. Rob Tillis, who founded Inner Circle Sports, estimates the global sports industry is worth $450 billion. He points to rising real estate values, growing media rights money, and these scarce assets increasingly appealing to the super wealthy.
The recent deals show institutional investors taking minority stakes in teams. Apollo has taken an equity stake in the Yankees, and Arctos is negotiating a 10% stake in the Falcons. Those deals are part of the broader rise in sports franchise valuations, and the Braves' stock has climbed 34% this year.
What It Means for Investors
Publicly traded sports franchises are rare, so shares of the Braves (ticker: BATRK) typically respond more to sector-wide trends than to quarterly results. Morgan Stanley analysts note that for baseball, the biggest concern is that labor negotiations drag on past spring training next year.
The labor dispute is the key risk to watch. If no agreement is reached, a lockout could delay the start of the 2026 season, hurting revenue and putting pressure on the stock. The historical precedent is clear: labor conflicts can severely disrupt the sport and its finances.
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