The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.65% this week, according to Freddie Mac's data released Thursday. That is down from 6.67% last week, marking the second consecutive weekly decline. A year ago, the average was 6.58%.
The minor decline reflects a Treasury Department decision to expand its repurchases of long-term debt, a strategy aimed at stabilizing bond-market stability. Long-term Treasury yields dropped Wednesday after that announcement, which helped mortgage rates ease. But don't panic the champagne just yet.
Those yields are still sitting at uncomfortable highs. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.34% Tuesday, the highest since 2007, while the 10-year yield reached 4.75%, a 19-month high.
Persistent inflation worries tied to the long-running Iran conflict are keeping borrowing costs a concern. The U.S.-Iran 60-day window to negotiate a peace deal expired earlier this week, President Donald Trump said he would not extend it, and tensions flared again near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude climbed above $90 a barrel, hitting a level not seen since late July.
Here is the frustrating part for anyone shopping for a home: until the Iran war started near the end of February, mortgage rates had been easing, and at one point went under 6%, something not seen since 2022. Now, anxiety over inflation has driven selling in longer-dated bonds, which pushes mortgage rates higher.
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Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel had predicted rates would ease slightly this week, but he warned about the road ahead. He wrote: "The action at the long end of the curve underscores fears over inflation and the fiscal outlook, and that could put upward pressure on mortgage rates in the coming weeks."
Concerns about U.S. debt and uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve will do next are keeping long-term yields high, even after the Treasury's buyback plan gave them a brief breather. Fed minutes from the July meeting showed a number of policymakers had supported raising the benchmark rate, and many said further tightening would be required unless inflation slows.
For homebuyers, the math is getting rough. U.S. home prices were up 3.4% year over year, the fastest annual pace in a year, according to Redfin data released Tuesday. That gain was led by 29 of the 50 largest metro markets, with San Francisco, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and New York seeing the biggest jumps.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, put it plainly: "The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that's pulling back contract signings." He added that "homes are sitting on the market longer and fewer buyers are bidding above the asking price" than a year ago, though local markets vary a lot.
The demand picture backs him up. July pending contracts fell 2.2% from the year earlier, and pending contracts are running 30% below their pre-pandemic level from 2019, per the National Association of Realtors' monthly report. Renters are not getting much of a break either. The typical U.S. asking rent was nearly $2,000 in July, up 2.3% year over year, according to Zillow.
So where does this leave you? Mortgage rates are still high, home prices are still climbing, and rent is still eating a big chunk of paychecks. The combination is squeezing anyone trying to buy a first home or move up to a bigger one.
The good news is that rates are moving in the right direction, even if the move is small. The bad news is that the forces pushing them up - inflation fears, oil prices, and federal borrowing - are not going away overnight.
This is also a political issue. A July Pew Research Center survey found voters most want congressional candidates to focus on economic issues, especially affordability. That could shape the 2026 midterms, which means housing costs are no longer just a personal finance problem. They are a national conversation.
For your money, the takeaway is simple. If you are in the market to buy, a rate of 6.65% is still expensive compared to what you could have locked in a few years ago. But if rates keep drifting lower, even a small drop can save you real money over the life of a loan. The question is whether this dip is the start of a trend or just a blip in a market that keeps everyone guessing.
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