Presidents rarely call the whole Cabinet to Camp David, but Trump is doing it Wednesday. The retreat lands the same week U.S. forces struck Iran and his own language on a peace deal moved from "largely negotiated" to "no deal at all."
That mismatch between calm retreat and escalating war is what makes this meeting matter for markets.
The White House confirmed the Camp David gathering to CNBC on Tuesday. Officially, the agenda covers the economy, small business, fraud enforcement, and foreign policy.
Almost no one expects anything to top Iran. The U.S. and Israel are now nearly three months into a war that has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, jolted global energy supplies, and pulled the U.S. into direct strikes.
Trump posted Saturday on Truth Social that a deal "has been largely negotiated," before shifting tone Monday to say any agreement will be "a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal."
If talks fail, he wrote, it would be "Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before - And nobody wants that!"
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday the Strait of Hormuz has to reopen "one way or the other," and the strait moves a fifth of the world's oil. Its de facto shutdown has driven a historic global energy supply shock.
Rubio also said final talks on a deal could "take a few days." Trump complicated things Monday by demanding several Middle Eastern nations sign the Abraham Accords to normalize relations with Israel as part of an Iran deal.
Pakistan rejected the idea outright. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who said last week she will resign in late June over her husband's illness, is set to attend the Camp David meeting.
Two things will tell investors what happened in the room - oil prices and Trump's social posts in the days after. If energy prices ease, traders will read it as a deal getting closer.
If they spike, the next round of strikes is likely closer than the next round of talks. Wednesday's meeting won't be public. The market's reaction will be.
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