Oil spent the day whipsawing as traders tried to handicap supply risks tied to the conflicts in the Middle East and in Russia and Ukraine. Prices pulled back from early highs on chatter that Moscow and Kyiv might consider a pause on hitting energy infrastructure, and on Oman's state media noting talks with the US on calming tensions in the region.
There is no cease-fire on energy targets at this point, according to both Ukraine and Russia, though each signaled openness to an energy cease-fire idea put forward by US President Donald Trump. AP said Monday, citing two regional officials, that Saudi Arabia's key line will likely stay shut for weeks.
Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline last week, a vital workaround since the Iran war curbed Persian Gulf export routes. The kingdom has not given a reopening date, and there are worries the outage could persist for weeks. To offset the disruption, Saudi officials are seeking to push more barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the plan. However, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the line should be back "very soon."
Diplomatic traffic has picked up. According to Oman's state news agency, Oman's foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by phone to discuss steps to ease Middle East tensions. Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara is ramping up efforts to secure a deal that would halt attacks on vessels in the Black Sea.
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On-the-ground risks remain elevated. Market pricing reflects the squeeze: Brent's prompt spread - the difference between the closest two contracts - is around $4.70 a barrel in backwardation, compared with less than $2 roughly a month ago, signaling strength in nearby barrels.
Bottom line for your wallet: with a major Saudi conduit shut and war risk still in the mix, near-term crude remains prized over later delivery. That backdrop can ripple into everything from airfare to heating bills.
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