Fresh EU Sentinel images haven't shown any supertankers taking on crude at Kharg Island, Iran's main export hub, for at least two weeks. The last sightings there were a ship at the east jetty on Aug. 25 and a very large crude carrier at the west jetty on Aug. 14. The same satellites have revealed scant activity at the Soroosh and Jask terminals.
Those pictures come with caveats. Many tankers moving Iran's crude switch off or hide their transponders when in the Persian Gulf, complicating efforts to track them as they transit the Strait of Hormuz. And satellites pass roughly every three days, so quick bursts of loading can be missed.
Bloomberg's tanker-tracking points to August exports that were only a sliver of pre-war flows. Preliminary estimates put crude and condensate loadings at about 247,000 barrels a day in August - roughly a 74% plunge and less than 15% of just-before-war levels. Iran's Oil Ministry and the National Iranian Oil Company did not provide an immediate reply to requests for comment sent by phone or email.
Iran's central bank chief, Abdolnaser Hemmati, said last month that oil exports had virtually stopped, even as Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad later maintained that deliveries to customers were still happening. Either way, storage is swelling. Kpler data indicate storage at major locations - Kharg, Goreh, Assaluyeh and Javan - has risen to roughly 67 million barrels, close to May's peak, with capacity about 56% utilized. Not all of that space may be usable.
At sea, the logjam is growing closer to Iran. Vortexa estimates around 38 million barrels are now parked to the west of the US blockade, consistent with cargoes piling up as onward movement remains constrained. Farther east, inventories near end users are thinning out. Vortexa reports so-called floating storage fell by about 51% month on month in the South China Sea and 43% in the Yellow Sea.
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Supply tightness is showing up in prices. Argus Media pegs Iranian cargoes into Asia at a $6.50-per-barrel premium over Brent futures - the most elevated since 2019 - as traders say Iranian flows are dwindling.
With shipments slowing, Iran's revenues are taking another hit as its economy already wrestles with a collapsing currency and surging inflation. The pressure tracks with President Donald Trump's push for an "economic D-Day" to make Tehran capitulate. Tensions also climbed in the past week after the US military carried out strikes on multiple Iranian vessels, citing retaliation for aggression toward an American warship.
The regional disruption has driven crude futures past $105 a barrel and forced China, Iran's primary customer, to seek substitutes, boosting prices for cargoes from Africa to Latin America.
Fewer Iranian barrels on the move and more crude stranded near the Gulf is a recipe for firmer prices, and the premium on Asian cargoes is already flashing that signal. Keep an eye on three fast-moving swing factors: Iran's monthly loading estimates, onshore and floating stock trends, and any shift in naval activity that either eases or tightens the flow. Those drive pump prices, shipping spreads, and eventually what you pay to fill up.
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