Three months ago, America's top CEOs felt good. Now they are bracing for a downturn.
A closely watched confidence gauge from the Conference Board just had one of its sharpest drops in memory. Layoff plans now edge ahead of hiring plans.
The Conference Board surveys 141 chief executives each quarter. Its confidence score just fell from 59 to 47.
Any reading under 50 means more CEOs are gloomy than upbeat. So they did not just slip - they crossed the line.
The drop was fast and broad. Few corners of the economy looked safe to them.
In the first quarter, 39% said the economy was better than six months earlier. Now just 15% do.
The share calling it worse jumped to 47%. And 40% expect things to get worse over the next six months, up from just 13% last quarter.
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That gloom is turning into plans. For the first time in a while, more CEOs expect to shrink their staff than grow it.
31% plan to cut jobs over the next six months. That is just ahead of the 28% who plan to add.
Pay raises are shrinking too, mostly into the 3% to 4% range. Even so, more than half still report some trouble finding workers.
Economists call this a "low-hire, low-fire" market. Firms are not slashing jobs yet, but they have stopped reaching for new ones.
The economy gave them reasons to worry. The latest reading showed growth of just 0.5% in the final quarter, below what economists expected.
That capped a year that still grew 2.1%. So the slowdown looks recent, not a long decline.
Add in the Middle East conflict and higher energy costs. The rest of the year looks shaky to the people running the biggest firms.
Beyond growth, CEOs flagged a familiar list of threats. Cyber attacks topped it, with nearly two-thirds calling it a top risk.
Worries about global conflict and fast-moving AI ranked close behind. Supply chains and energy climbed the list this quarter.
The Conference Board's chief economist said the economy looks materially worse than six months ago. She added that CEOs see their own industries weakening further.
One outside economist warned the 2026 outlook looks even less favorable. He tied it to the Middle East conflict and higher prices.
When CEOs stop hiring, the job market usually feels it months later. Their confidence just took its steepest fall in years.
The hiring plans say which way they lean. Smart investors often study how to invest during a recession before the headlines force the question.
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