Americans have not felt this bad about money in nearly four years. You would guess prices are the reason.
They are not. The New York Fed just showed that fear of inflation barely moved, even as the gloom got worse.
The New York Fed asks people each month how they feel about their money. The latest answers were grim.
The poll is called the Survey of Consumer Expectations. The Fed leans on it to read the public mood.
The share who feel "much worse" than a year ago jumped to 13.3%. That is the highest since July 2022.
Add in those who feel "somewhat worse," and you get 43.7%. That is the most downbeat since the start of 2023.
The view ahead is no brighter. Just 22.9% expect things to improve, while 36% expect them to get worse.
That gap between hope and worry is the widest since late 2022. The mood did not just dip - it sank.
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Here is the twist. If people were panicking about prices, you would see it in their inflation views.
You do not. The one-year inflation outlook slipped a touch, to 3.5%.
Longer-term views held flat, near 3%. People even expect gas to cost a little less.
They do see rent and food creeping up. The rent outlook rose to 7.4%.
So the worry is not really about the grocery bill. It is a sense that things are sliding, even when price tags are not the cause.
Most people are not bracing for runaway prices. Their unease is broader than any single bill.
People also plan to spend a bit less next year. That kind of pullback can slow the whole economy.
Their expected spending growth slipped to 5% for the year ahead. Even the outlook for gas edged down, to about 5%.
This lands at an awkward moment. Fresh inflation data is due Wednesday, and it is expected to tick up.
Economists look for prices up about 4.2% from a year ago. That is more than double the 2% pace the Fed wants.
The Fed meets on June 17. Investors no longer expect a rate cut - a drop in the rate that sets borrowing costs.
Some now think the next move could be a hike by year-end. That would be a sharp turn from the cuts markets waited months for.
Markets see almost no chance of a cut this month. The bigger debate now is how soon a hike could come.
Confidence and prices usually move together. Right now they are pulling apart, and Wednesday's report will show which one the Fed trusts more.
The mood says one thing. The data has not agreed yet.
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