The Middle East war is showing up at the gas pump, at the grocery store, and now in how Americans feel about the economy.
Consumer confidence slipped again in May, and the way people are talking about prices is starting to look familiar in a way nobody wants.
The Conference Board's confidence index fell to 93.1 from a revised 93.8 in April, beating the 92.0 drop economists expected.
That was the only silver lining.
Under the headline, the mix got worse. The Present Situation Index, which tracks how people feel about jobs and business right now, dropped 3.2 points to 121.2.
The Expectations Index, which looks six months out, ticked up 1.0 to 74.4 - but it has been below 80 every month since February 2025, and that line has marked the runway to a recession in past cycles.
Mentions of prices, oil, and gas climbed in write-in answers for the second month in a row, while mentions of war and geopolitics stayed near the top of the list.
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Two-thirds of consumers told the Conference Board they are spending less because of rising prices, with most buying fewer items or pushing off bigger purchases.
Clothing, hobbies, and toys are getting cut first.
Not everything is being shelved, though. Plans to buy used cars kept climbing on a six-month basis, while travel plans ticked up too - just domestic, not abroad.
The takeaway: Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said consumer write-in answers point to one worry above all - that the war in the Middle East will keep showing up in their wallets.
Nearly half of consumers expect interest rates to be higher a year from now.
The share calling a recession "very likely" or "somewhat likely" climbed again in May, while fewer Americans said jobs are "plentiful" and confidence in their own income six months out slipped.
The Fed has to decide if the Middle East price spike is a one-off or the start of something stickier, and consumers are voting with their grocery carts already.
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