The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, released Thursday, shows four in five Americans now call the economy fair or poor, the highest share since December 2023. Sixty three percent are pessimistic about current conditions and the outlook, up one point from July.
What pushed that higher was a turn among Republicans. Thirty five percent now say they are pessimistic, up six points since July and the highest of either of Trump's two terms. As Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies put it, "We got there not because of independents or Democrats getting more sour - it's because Republicans have."
Prices are the common thread. Four out of five respondents report that prices are on the rise - an increase of five points compared with a year ago - and 55% now think they're accelerating faster than normal, likewise up five points. When food, gas, and housing are grouped, that category ranks as the chief worry for 57% of voters.
Asked who should run Congress, voters chose Democrats 52% to 45%, a seven point margin that is three points stronger for Democrats than in July. For the 1,000 registered voters surveyed, the statistical margin of error is ±3.1%.
Enthusiasm tilts blue as well: 72% of Democrats say they are highly interested in the Nov. 3 midterm, compared with 62% of Republicans. Women are 10 points more likely than men to be highly engaged, and they prefer Democratic control by 22 points. Independents favor Democratic control 49% to 33%.
Corruption tops the list for 36% of respondents, and on that topic Democrats enjoy a 4-point edge. The cost of food and groceries is next, and Democrats widened their edge there to +16 from +7 in July. Food now outranks gas as a strain, 34% to 23%, and concern over food prices is elevated among those earning 30,000 dollars or less and among supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America agenda. It is also the top issue for Republicans who do not identify as MAGA supporters.
Voters also give Democrats the edge on protecting democracy and handling the high price of gas. Republicans keep the lead on border security and immigration, though it narrowed to +9 from +15. On jobs and unemployment, and on Iran, Democrats lead, with Iran flipping from +2 for Republicans in July to +5 for Democrats now.
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Those most motivated to vote tend to name corruption and protecting democracy as their top priorities, and they prefer Democratic control by wide margins.
Trump's overall approval sits at 40% approve and 59% disapprove, a net -19 versus -8 a year ago. Since July, his approval on the economy dropped to 34% from 38%, while disapproval increased to 65% from 60%. That net -31 on the economy is his lowest of either term. That 65% disapproval stands one point above former President Joe Biden's lowest mark and is the highest recorded for any president in CNBC polling dating to President Barack Obama.
On the Iran military action, 46% say it was worth it to disrupt Iran's nuclear development, down from 53% in April. Just 35% say it was worth it in light of higher gasoline prices.
Ethics draws rare consensus. Ninety three percent believe that officeholders - from the president to members of Congress - ought to be prohibited from personally owning or trading stock in single companies with federal contracts. And 89% contend that any company in which a sitting president's immediate family members have ownership stakes or investments should be barred from receiving federal contracts.
Both pollsters see movement favoring Democrats but caution against assuming a wave. Roberts called it a contest between "the map and momentum," noting any big change would require Democrats to flip many places Trump won easily two years ago.
Democratic pollster Jay Campbell said the trend would make him "very nervous" if he were running Republican campaigns, and he described the shift as a return to the mean with young voters and voters of color coming back to Democrats, helped by independents skeptical of "Trumponomics." He added, "At no point did anyone expect that Democratic candidates would suddenly pull 15% of the Republican vote." The bottom line: voters are fixated on prices and corruption, and interest is highest among those who rank corruption and protecting democracy at the top.
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