Two tanker trackers saw the same week very differently. Kpler counted crude and condensate shipped out of the Persian Gulf at 24.6 million barrels a day for the week through Oct. 18, while Vortexa's view of that period was a flatter 18 million barrels a day.
Both firms put pre-conflict exports at no less than 18.5 million barrels a day. For October so far, the pace is softer: 16.7 million barrels a day by Kpler and 15.4 million by Vortexa.
How they count matters. Kpler builds its figure from Strait of Hormuz passages, net ship to ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, and cargoes leaving Red Sea ports plus Gulf of Oman terminals in the UAE and Oman. Vortexa sums shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Oman.
Producers have strong reasons to keep barrels flowing. Oil revenues anchor their economies, and they've been vying for buyers to offset billions of dollars in lost sales during the conflict.
Tactics helped. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have run their own tankers through Hormuz, then handed oil to customers' vessels outside the strait. Those state fleets and a few willing shipowners kept crude movements near last month's clip, which was the highest since the conflict began.
Routing also shifted. Iraq has sent more volumes through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is loading from both its Persian Gulf and Red Sea coasts and, after hitting the lowest output in more than three decades the prior month, raised production by roughly a third in September to above 8 million barrels a day. The International Energy Agency says the UAE pushed production to record highs and has been among the most successful at moving ships through Hormuz.
One more swing factor is gone for now. Iran's exports have been completely lost following a US blockade of its ports. Earlier this year, Kpler and Vortexa each estimated Iran's February exports at nearly 2 million barrels a day.
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Security risks have risen. UK Maritime Trade Operations has logged 32 ship-targeting incidents this month around the Arabian peninsula, up from 16 in September. A wave of assaults in the waterway this month resulted in at least one container ship being sunk. Some strikes hit engine rooms, causing more severe damage.
Meanwhile, logistics make the data look jumpy. Loadings bunch up, tankers move in convoys through Hormuz, and cargoes are shuttled to waiting ships outside the strait before tankers loop back to reload. That produces bursts of activity followed by quieter stretches.
Measuring it all is harder because many tankers in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea are sailing with AIS - the location transponder - switched off, and satellite imagery is being withheld over the region. Shipments often show up days late, leading to upward revisions. One snapshot: satellite images of Saudi Arabia's largest Persian Gulf terminal revealed that on Oct. 12-13, there were five very large crude carriers taking on cargo at its seven moorings, falling to one on Oct. 20. Similar starts and stops are visible at other Gulf and Red Sea ports.
In a note from Morgan Stanley analysts, among them Martijn Rats, "Attacks on merchant vessels around the Strait have increased sharply in recent weeks," yet "oil flow through the strait has remained relatively resilient."
Headline export prints can diverge by method and often get revised as delayed voyages are logged. For now, producers are keeping barrels moving through workarounds, even as attacks and limited tracking blur the picture.
The bottom line: supply from this corridor looks choppy, not collapsing. Expect week to week volatility in figures like 24.6 million bpd for the week through Oct. 18 and month to date reads of 16.7 and 15.4 million bpd, with revisions likely as convoy and shuttle runs are reconciled.
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