A person with knowledge of the work said the European Commission has begun poring over trade data to identify import spikes. If it finds clear jumps, Brussels can turn to safeguard tools such as quotas to limit volumes. The review spans several industries, notably chemicals and machinery. A Commission spokesperson didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
Separately, European Commission and Bloomberg Economics data show 869 product codes flagged for sustained volume increases paired with lower prices from April 2025 to March 2026, with machinery drawing the most attention. There's no set timetable for finishing these safeguard checks, and officials are concentrating first on rolling out the hybrid-vehicle measures already agreed.
Expect the Commission to use its understanding with China on hybrid vehicles as a model. The EU announced a ceiling of 350,000 cars per year, and the aim for any new quotas would be to set them high enough to discourage retaliation from Beijing. Under that deal, China would cut tariffs on certain auto components and on olive oil and ice cream.
China's exports to Europe hit a record in September, just before the hybrid-car understanding was reached. Several governments want to move quickly from there: Germany, in particular, has pushed for quotas on more sectors to start narrowing the bloc's large trade gap and asked the Commission for proposals by year end.
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EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss how to reduce the trade gap after it hit a record $34.8 billion in September. The Commission plans to present a package ahead of a mid-December summit to encourage companies to diversify suppliers and to address overcapacity. Trade chief Maros Sefcovic is expected to review progress and discuss next steps with Chinese officials in the early part of next year. The EU is also aiming for better access to China's market and for faster, simpler export procedures covering critical minerals and permanent magnets.
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