On Wednesday, a majority in parliament signed off on next year's budget, with Prime Minister Robert Fico apparently preparing to pursue a fifth term in office. The move abandons the government's earlier goal of a 3% deficit and instead targets a 4.9% gap. Slovakia's 5.4 million people enter an election year as growth slows amid uncertainty in global trade and rising energy costs, while heavy social spending keeps the shortfall above the European Union's limit.
The opposition argues the plan leans on an upbeat 1.8% growth assumption, contrasting with an economy expanding only 0.8% this year. The Council for Budget Responsibility raised separate red flags, saying the budget does not put debt on a stable path and breaches the constitutional debt brake, likely also violating the constitution's principle of long term fiscal sustainability. Under the approved framework, the deficit is set to remain above 4% of GDP through 2029, and gross debt is forecast to rise to 71.8% of GDP, compared with 61.4% in 2025.
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The draft was debated only within the government and sent to parliament two days before the session, which meant the Supreme Audit Office was, for the first time, unable to complete a full review. The Constitutional Court will examine the objections and could find the budget unconstitutional. Foreseeing that outcome, the cabinet put in place more flexible spending rules should the country have to operate under provisional financing next year.
The opposition says that safety net invites unsustainable outlays, and it blasted the focus on measures such as extra pensions, higher public sector wages, and subsidies to offset high household energy prices. Presenting the plan last week, Kamenicky promised no increases in taxes or social contributions. "Over your term in office, you will have put Slovakia €31 billion ($34.7 billion) into debt," opposition lawmaker Marian Viskupic told parliament.
The budget maps a higher-deficit path and a rising debt load even as growth slows, which affects the government's future tax choices, service quality, and borrowing costs. If the court forces a provisional budget, temporary rules could inject more uncertainty into how much the state spends and where it goes.
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