At a discussion with Krishna Srinivasan of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department during the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Shin said further strengthening of the won would be welcome, highlighting how the currency's appreciation since policy turned restrictive has lifted household buying power.
He underscored that policy will stay tight until inflation is on track to meet target in a timely fashion, saying, "We will keep a restrictive stance of monetary policy until we're confident that inflation will converge to our target, and in a timely way."
The BOK delivered back-to-back quarter-point hikes in July and August, bringing the benchmark rate to 3%. Shin has previously indicated that any additional tightening would proceed gradually as officials assess how higher borrowing costs are feeding through.
He also said the bank will review its six-month dot plot after it has at least a year of experience with it. Former Governor Rhee Chang Yong rolled out the tool in February. There is no set timetable, and any review would occur next year or later, he said.
The projections have helped convey policymakers' thinking; in August they let the bank convey the slope of its policy response alongside the hike, and he said this supported long-term yields. Still, guidance must remain flexible to adapt to new information. As Shin put it, "We're trying to look for exactly that sweet spot between forward guidance too much and too little."
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Shin said a stronger currency has shifted momentum toward the domestic side of the economy, easing gaps in what he described as a "K-shaped" landscape. He added that measures covering prices, currency movements, and system-wide stability now point the same way, reducing the typical policy trade-offs.
He pointed to crosscurrents for the outlook: the AI boom more than offsets the negative effects of the Middle East war, but together they are nudging inflation higher. With robust demand compounding war-related cost pressures, he said both headline and core inflation will probably stay above the BOK's 2% target for a while.
Before taking the helm in Seoul, Shin spent over 10 years at the Bank for International Settlements, and he said that a tighter stance should also temper the buildup of financial vulnerabilities. He noted that the central bank's gauge of financial vulnerabilities has been rising, but he judged it will likely crest at a benign level.
On Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2024 growth estimate for South Korea to 3.3%, which is 0.7 percentage point higher than in July, matching the BOK's most recent projection following the central bank's sharp August upgrade of its 2026 outlook to 3.3% from 2.6%. It also increased its view for 2027 to 2.8%. Meanwhile, September exports were more than twice their level a year earlier, reaching a record $120.9 billion, driven by a 263% jump in semiconductor shipments.
Inflation slowed to 2.9% after 3.1% in August, remaining above target. For your budget, that mix of a firmer won, persistent inflation pressures, and a central bank intent on staying restrictive hints that borrowing may stay relatively expensive even as growth holds up, which can affect travel plans and the price tags on imported goods.
Currency strength and tightening usually point the same way. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and follow it.
