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Australia's export windfall is near its top as prices stay hot

Nate Gregory
Published Oct 1, 2026
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Summary:
  • Resource and energy export earnings are on track to climb nearly 5% to A$422 billion ($293 billion) in the 12 months to June.
  • A quarterly report ties higher oil, LNG and coal prices to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
  • LNG is set to jump 27% to A$70 billion, with metallurgical coal at A$40 billion this year.

The headline numbers

Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources said Friday that export earnings should reach A$422 billion for the year ending in June, equal to $293 billion, up close to 5% as commodity prices stay elevated. That strength is arriving even as China, Australia's biggest trading partner, contends with a years-long property crisis. The department expects earnings to ease in the years after this one.

Which commodities moved the needle

LNG income is projected to surge 27% to A$70 billion, while earnings from metallurgical coal used in steelmaking are expected to reach A$40 billion.

Iron ore, Australia's top export, has seen benchmark prices hold near $100 per ton, supporting overall receipts. Nevertheless, iron ore receipts are expected to total A$107 billion this year - below A$119 billion last year - because additional supply is entering the market while China's steel appetite flattens.

When headlines spotlight one sector, steady investing still matters, so claim your free Always Be Buying E-Book today

Other metals and the outlook

Copper is getting a demand lift from power grid expansion, renewable energy projects and AI-fueled data center buildouts. The report expects copper earnings to reach $16 billion this year and $18 billion next year. Gold income is projected to dip yet still reach A$68 billion, with recent gains linked to safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and steady purchases by banks. Lithium earnings are also rising as prices recover from a slump that shuttered some mines.

What comes next and why it matters

Export earnings are expected to cool after this fiscal year as the jolt from global supply chain disruptions fades, with the impact seen waning from 2027. The report also notes that figures for 2026-27 are estimates, while those for 2027-28 are forecasts.

For your wallet, the short version is this: the big lift from higher commodity prices is happening now, but the pace looks set to slow as supply builds and demand normalizes.

No matter the sector readers discuss, a simple plan wins over time; download the free Always Be Buying E-Book now

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