What Kashkari is watching
He said his thinking on handling fuel-driven price spikes has shifted. A single supply shock might be something the Fed can look through. But, he said, after "five years of this sequence of one-time supply shocks," the responsibility falls to the central bank to get inflation down.
The policy path and market odds
Fed officials voted unanimously to raise their policy rate last month, the first hike in about three years. Projections released after that meeting showed most policymakers anticipated at least one more increase before the year is out. Earlier this week, Kashkari noted the outlook he filed in September was consistent with that median view.
Investors pared back expectations for an October rate move after New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday there was "no need for urgency" on additional increases following last month's hike. Fresh inflation figures on Wednesday showed a closely watched core measure rose less than expected in the latest month, but federal funds futures still indicate markets are leaning toward one more hike by December.
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Kashkari has been on the hawkish side lately. In July, he was one of three officials who dissented from holding rates steady, preferring a quarter-point increase at that meeting.
The broader economy and why it matters to you
Kashkari reiterated that the economy has held up better than expected, with growth spread across many corners rather than clustered only in artificial intelligence related areas. "Overall, it is a robust economy that's proven to be quite resilient, and I think monetary policy can have an imprint on that," he said.
He also said last month that price pressures had extended beyond the energy hit tied to the war in Iran. More broadly, US inflation has run above the Fed's 2% goal for more than five years, lifted first by the post‑pandemic boom and more recently by tariffs and the war in the Middle East. For your wallet, that mix means borrowing costs could stay elevated while the Fed tests how much more tightening, if any, is needed to finish the job on inflation.
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