On Monday, President Daniel Noboa issued an executive decree that removed Sariha Moya and put Bernardo Cordovez in charge of the finance portfolio within the recently expanded ministry. Moya had overseen the country's public finances for more than two years and, since April 2024, served as finance chief, making her the second person to hold that job during Noboa's administration; he won election in late 2023. Cordovez earlier chaired the board of the state-run Ecuadorian Institute of Social Security, which is a major buyer of domestic bonds.
The ministry declined to comment right away when asked. Just last week, Noboa told Bloomberg Television that Moya intended to meet bond investors in New York during events alongside the United Nations General Assembly.
Prices fell fast. The 2039 bonds declined by 2.3 cents, landing at 92.9 cents on the dollar. For the month, Ecuador's bonds are off 4.5%, ranking as the second-weakest performance among emerging-market country debt in a Bloomberg gauge. "It's unknown why they replaced Sariha Moya," said Ramiro Blazquez, strategist at StoneX Securities. He added that elections are approaching amid fiscal uncertainty and El Niño, and "it's not settling news."
During Moya's tenure, the IMF program increased from $4 billion to roughly $5 billion, aligning with the president's effort to eliminate onerous fuel subsidies. She also steered a comeback to international markets via a record $4 billion global bond sale in January, coming five years after a restructuring during the pandemic. In June, Noboa reduced the cabinet and broadened the ministry's scope to cover foreign trade, agriculture and tourism, renaming it the Ministry of Economic and Productive Development.
The macro backdrop has turned rough. Earlier gains in Ecuador's bonds have faded as the government boosts fuel subsidies while the Iran war increases pressure on diesel prices. Oil production continues to decline, and fuel demand is outpacing local refining capacity.
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A strong El Niño is already inundating stretches of the Pacific Coast lowlands, endangering infrastructure and major export sectors such as shrimp and bananas. The Andean highlands could instead face drought akin to late 2024, when the hydro-reliant power grid endured widespread blackouts. "Ecuador is definitely on the 'loser end' of the ledger of countries that would potentially be vulnerable to this," said Gorky Urquieta, who leads emerging-market debt at Neuberger Berman. Ecuadorians vote in November for local and provincial officials as a security crisis has made the country one of the most violent in South America and polls show high indecision. Last week, Jason Keene, a strategist at Barclays, lowered his call on Ecuador, pointing to increased subsidy outlays and El Niño expected to persist into year end, adding that energy issues and "political incentives" ahead of the election could make fiscal consolidation "considerably more challenging."
The handoff to Cordovez lands just as subsidies, oil dynamics and weather risk are squeezing the budget - and markets are pricing that in. With November's local elections and analysts flagging tougher fiscal math, Ecuador's bond moves may stay choppy. If you follow emerging-market debt or hold funds with exposure, the mix to watch is policy follow-through, subsidy trends and El Niño's bite, since those are steering the story on Ecuador's risk and return.
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