Russia's refining network isn't bouncing back the way it used to. In its monthly oil report, the IEA said "the persistent drone strikes and the patchwork nature of repairs" are piling up damage and "degrading the refining system." Sanctions are tightening the screws too, making it harder to recover.
Ukraine has focused on Russia's energy infrastructure to limit crude processing and exports, and by extension, the revenue that funds the full-scale invasion. Bloomberg counted at least 22 refinery hits in August based on public statements from both sides - the highest monthly total since the war started.
Ukraine's capabilities keep improving. The IEA notes that "Ukrainian forces are using multiple drone waves against single sites, overwhelming protective netting and air defences," and that "the targeting also appears more precise." Strikes are increasingly reaching secondary-processing units inside refineries, which the agency estimates can take six to eight months to replace.
Sanctions are compounding the problem by restricting access to replacement equipment, stretching repair timelines. The IEA also warned that longer waits for spare parts plus the onset of colder weather could increase the strain on Russia's refining system.
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Facing domestic shortages, Russia put a short-term halt on shipping abroad the bulk of its diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel to safeguard home supplies. Even so, some regions still imposed fuel rationing. Starting in late August, Russia stepped up strikes against Ukraine - concentrated near the capital - and began using jet-powered drones that are more difficult to intercept, a change the IEA says heightens the danger to civilians.
The IEA cut its baseline view for Russia's oil processing over the next year and a half to roughly 4 million barrels a day, about 30% below where it was before the invasion. Amid weaker refinery activity, the agency lowered its projection for 2026 crude supply by 125,000 barrels per day, bringing it to 8.7 million barrels per day. The agency cautioned that "even this more cautious assessment may yet understate the problems that Russia's refining complex faces."
For everyday budgets, the takeaway is simple: refinery outages and shifting supply forecasts can ripple into fuel availability and prices. If your spending or investments are sensitive to energy costs, keep an eye on how these constraints evolve and how quickly Russia can source parts and complete repairs as winter approaches.
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