Nvidia is the most valuable public company on earth, with a market value of $5.2 trillion. When it reports earnings, the whole market tends to hold its breath.
But Allspring's Ann Miletti says Jackson Hole, not Nvidia's report, is the bigger risk for the market.
Nvidia's results land two days before Aug. 28. That's when the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts its Jackson Hole economic symposium, and central bank officials are scheduled to be there.
Jackson Hole is where central bankers talk about interest rates. A single comment can shift expectations across markets.
Miletti says investors should have low expectations for the event. She does not expect a clear answer on where rates go next.
One company, even one this large, is still one company. The cost of money touches every stock and every bond.
The cost of money has been rising. Companies now pay more than 5.5% to borrow, up from less than 5% in January, putting pressure on every company that needs financing.
A business plan that was viable in January may no longer be profitable at these rates. That pressure is what catches Miletti's attention.
The Treasury market tells the same story. The 30-year Treasury yield, the interest the U.S. government pays on bonds that mature in three decades, has jumped above 5.3%.
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This move came before the Treasury Secretary doubled planned buybacks to $4 billion. Long Treasury yields also influence rates on mortgages and car loans.
That's how a bond market move gets into your wallet: unexpectedly. Miletti says the level of rates matters less than the speed.
"It's the quickness of the move, the sharpness of the move, that can make a difference," she said.
A gradual rise gives businesses time to adjust. A sudden rise forces them to change plans. That's why Miletti is watching the pace, not just the level.
Miletti is not losing sleep over July. She says she would "not mind a little bit more" of a correction, because it could leave markets "in a better place to really remain stable for the rest of the year."
Her focus remains on what she can control. "The thing that we try to stay focused on will all the craziness going on is what you can control," she said.
That means a bottom-up approach: focusing on individual companies instead of forecasting the broader economy. She starts with balance sheets, or what a company owns and owes.
She looks for companies with enough flexibility to handle any environment. "Really understanding what companies have the balance sheet and the flexibility to get through any environment - that's really where we're focused, and that's what we have control of," she said.
Miletti is not trying to predict the next Fed meeting. She's looking for companies that can handle every environment.
Her current preferences reflect that: health care and small-cap industrials, where she sees real AI-driven innovation potential.
Small-cap means smaller companies by capturing value, and industrials are the companies that make and move things.
The next stretch is packed. Nvidia's earnings can swing sentiment one way, and Jackson Hole can swing it back two days later through the Fed's path.
If central bankers are more cautious than investors expect, markets could feel it fast. Rates are moving quickly, and that can create bumps in the next few weeks.
For most people, the better question isn't what happens on Aug. 28. It's whether the companies can still make money if rates stay higher.
Strong balance sheets and flexibility give the best chance. That's where Miletti says her focus remains for the rest of the year.
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