If you have flown recently, you have likely noticed fuller planes and higher ticket prices. The reason traces back to a persistent shortage of available aircraft.
The gap between the supply of jets and airline demand is expected to last through the end of the decade, according to BOC Aviation CEO Steven Townend. He described the supply-demand imbalance as "a structural problem rather than a temporary blip."
This shortage has been building for years. Boeing and Airbus have accumulated a backlog of thousands of jets, but their factories cannot keep up. Supply chain issues and labor constraints have slowed production, forcing airlines to keep older planes flying longer, which raises maintenance costs and reduces efficiency.
Years of postponed deliveries have created a deficit of several thousand planes. The bottleneck affects everything from domestic routes to long-haul international travel.
The narrowbody market, which handles most short and medium flights, could ease back into balance by the end of the decade. That is the good news. The widebody market, however, remains tight.
Widebody jets, which handle long-haul international routes, are still being delivered at rates below 2018 levels. Since manufacturers cannot quickly ramp up production, this segment will remain constrained well beyond the rest of the market.
This makes it tough for airlines to plan differently depending on their route networks. Long-haul carriers are most exposed to the widebody squeeze, while narrowbody-focused airlines can expect more supply later in the decade.
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Airlines cannot add flights even when passenger demand is strong, which gives them unusual pricing power. That has translated into higher fares and better margins for some carriers, but also into rising fuel and maintenance costs.
The response has been mixed across regions. British Airways owner IAG and Lufthansa have abandoned their expansion targets for the year. Air France-KLM has also trimmed its 2026 capacity outlook.
In North America, passengers have kept booking even as ticket prices rose, allowing airlines to raise fares without the lack of demand. The strong economy and limited competition on many routes have helped. But in Asia, the situation is different. Budget and price-conscious passengers in Southeast Asia can easily shift to high-speed rail or low-cost options, making it harder for airlines to raise prices.
Fuel hedging is another factor. Airlines that locked in fuel prices earlier are better protected from the surge. Others, especially those in Asia, are seeing costs rise faster than they can pass them along.
Narrowbody jets, which handle most short and medium trips, are gradually becoming more available. But widebody aircraft - the larger planes used for long international routes - are still being delivered below 2018 levels. Because manufacturers can't quickly ramp up production, the widebody segment could stay constrained for much longer.
That leaves long-haul carriers in a bind. They cannot add capacity on popular international routes, even as demand recovers. The result is fewer seats, higher prices, and a competitive advantage for airlines that secured aircraft orders early.
With new planes hard to get, airlines are turning to leasing companies like BOC Aviation. Leasing allows carriers to free up cash and add capacity without waiting many years for a new order. This shift is changing how airlines act around their balance sheets, with more planes being financed through operating leases rather than outright purchases.
Lessors with existing order slots have become important partners for airlines that need aircraft quickly. BOC Aviation's CEO notes that the structural shortage will last through the end of the decade, with no rapid ramp-up in sight. That means travelers should expect continued high fares and limited flight options, especially on long-haul routes.
Airlines best positioned will be those with strong relationships with lessors and sources. Smaller carriers without such access may struggle to expand or maintain current operations.
The jet shortage is not just a brief supply problem - it's a sustainable shift in how airlines plan their networks and set prices. And it's likely to persist for several years to come.
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