Greece plans to make early repayments of roughly €13 billion (or $15.1 billion) during 2026. The early repayment package covers a €2.2 billion bond with a 2027 maturity and a €2.5 billion loan from the European Financial Stability Mechanism. Additionally, Athens intends to cut €1.2 billion from its Treasury bill inventory by December 31.
The payoff of all this early repayment shows up in the debt-to-GDP ratio, the key metric economists watch. The Public Debt Management Agency now projects the ratio at 137% for this year, down from its earlier forecast of 138.2%.
A lower debt-to-GDP ratio gives Greece more room to borrow in a crisis and signals to markets that the government is not overspending. If the budget performs as expected, this could make Greece the least indebted major European economy outside the core group within months. The European Commission, which closely monitors fiscal health, currently expects Italy to hold that position until 2027. But if Greece's numbers improve faster than projected, it could overtake Italy sooner.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is set to present his government's short-term priorities in early September, along with a strategy that extends to 2030. That timeline is significant because elections are due by mid-2027, and this plan will serve as a key part of the ruling party's economic platform.
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There is still room for surprises. If budget revenues come in above expectations, Mitsotakis may announce extra relief for self-employed workers and other groups. That plan is not final and could change. Any new spending will have to stay within the European Commission's fiscal rules.
The government says it wants to preserve the credibility built during the post-crisis recovery, which means keeping any new measures within those rules. For investors, the early repayments signal that Greece's future borrowing needs should keep shrinking. The 2027 funding strategy is expected to look much like this year's, and the country's cash reserves are projected to exceed €30 billion by the end of 2026. That is a comfortable cushion, giving Athens room to handle surprises without rushing back to bond markets.
When a government holds that much cash, it does not have to beg for money in a crisis. That stability tends to show up in calmer markets and steadier bond prices. The immediate result is that Greek 10-year bond yields have already dropped lower than those of Italy, France, and the UK, a shift that reflects growing confidence in the country's fiscal trajectory.
The early repayments are not just symbolic; they reduce future interest costs. Greece trims its interest bill by repaying €2.5 billion of European Financial Stability Mechanism loans and a €2.2 billion bond before they come due. Those savings can be redirected to growth-friendly investments, further lowering the debt ratio.
Greece's turnaround from a crippling debt crisis to a country that can prepay its creditors is a notable achievement. But the race to become Europe's most-indebted country is not exactly a contest it wants to win. The goal is to get the ratio down to safer levels, not just to overtake Italy.
Still, for markets, the signal is clear: Greece is no longer the outlier of the debt crisis. And with the government's plan through 2030, the country is aiming to keep it that way.
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