Wholesale Inflation Hit a Standstill
The government adds up a business's costs in a report called the producer price index, or PPI.
Think of PPI as a peek at inflation before it reaches your wallet. In July, that peek was flat.
The report was unchanged in July, while Wall Street had penciled in a 0.2% gain.
June's number also got a second look. The government revised it to a 0.1% drop.
The original June report showed a 0.3% decline.
A narrower measure that also strips out trade services climbed 0.4% in July.
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On an annual basis, the full PPI, the version that includes everything, is up 4.7%.
The core version, meaning PPI without food and energy, is up 4.2% on the same unadjusted basis.
Those annual figures still show how much prices have climbed over the past year, but the recent monthly calm is what investors focused on.
Because PPI tracks prices that businesses receive for their goods and services, it is often viewed as an early signal of where consumer prices may be headed. A sustained stretch of tame wholesale readings can ease pressure on households and give the Federal Reserve more room to be patient with its next policy move. It is not the only measure the central bank watches, but a flat reading can help calm concerns about future price increases.
The Split Behind the Numbers
The flat total hides a tug of war under the surface. Services prices went one way, goods prices went another.
- The service side of the index rose 0.2% in July.
- Portfolio management costs jumped 6.5%.
- Goods prices moved down, falling 0.7%.
- Energy prices dropped 3.1%.
- Gasoline slid 5.7%.
- Food prices fell 0.9%.
- The core goods slice of the report edged up 0.1%.
This report follows a stretch where inflation was running higher, fueled partly by the Iran conflict and President Trump's tariffs. It also arrives a day after the government said consumer prices rose just 0.1% in July.
When wholesale prices stay calm, it takes some pressure off the consumer side later. Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, said: "Net, net, pipeline pressures at the lower stages of production are not adding to the inflation risks the consumer faces."
Rupkey added: "It counts as good news that for a second consecutive month, PPI final demand prices have not gone up adding to the cost of living crisis faced by Americans."
What It Means for the Federal Reserve and Your Money
Investors read the report as a sign that the Federal Reserve can take its time.
For your money, the through-line is simple. If inflation keeps easing, the Federal Reserve might not have to raise rates as aggressively.
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