Here is the core issue. Ongoing conflict keeps energy costs elevated, while firms pour massive investments into artificial intelligence. Energy costs are pushing inflation up, while AI investment is making borrowing more expensive for everyone.
That includes the Fed's own chairman, Kevin Warsh, who took over in May. Warsh told CNBC one year ago that "AI is going to make almost everything cost less. The U.S. can be a big winner and it is a hugely exciting moment." He warned that if he were the president, he would worry about "a central bank that doesn't see any of that…and doesn't recognize that we are at the front of a productivity boom." He said, "I think that we are probably in the early innings of a structural decline in prices."
So the Fed is caught. It can raise rates to fight inflation today, but that might slow down the very productivity boom that could help everyone tomorrow.
The Fed's decision comes as the economy confronts both short-term price pressures and long-term transformative potential, a dilemma that has historically tested central bankers.
The late 1990s under Fed Chair Alan Greenspan saw a comparable economic situation. Back then, the tech boom was taking off, and Greenspan kept interest rates relatively low even as the economy grew fast. He bet that technology would boost productivity without causing runaway inflation. That gamble paid off temporarily, producing a stretch without a recession and stable inflation, but the expansion turned overheated, culminating in a collapse after a year of rate increases.
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But the current Fed faces a twist. The federal budget deficit is running near 6% of GDP, which is a big number for a time when the economy is not in a recession. That deficit adds to the pressure on borrowing costs. Inflation-adjusted yields on long-term government bonds are at their highest point in years, potentially slowing economic activity and weighing on markets.
In the 1990s, the United States benefited from reduced defense spending due to the end of the Cold War, fiscal discipline from a split government, and rapidly growing global supply networks - all of which helped suppress inflation and keep interest rates low. Today, the United States is actively reversing that trend through "re-shoring" and adding production redundancies, actions that overall neither curb inflation nor automatically raise productivity. A population that is growing older and a slow expansion of the labor force further limit how broadly productivity improvements can spread.
In the 1970s, oil shocks drove inflation while productivity growth faltered. Today, AI offers a potential productivity boom, but the combination of energy costs and fiscal deficits complicates the outlook.
The Fed's rate-setting committee meets on Wednesday, and traders in the bond market are now bracing for a possible rate increase at this meeting while also expecting at least one additional hike later this year. But the committee itself is not united.
Some members look at the AI spending and the energy shock and see the 1970s all over again - when inflation got out of control and stayed high for years. Others side more with Warsh. They argue that AI will lower costs across the economy, letting growth happen without sparking inflation. That divide means the decision could be close, providing ample fodder for the internal debate Warsh has said he encourages among policymakers.
For investors, the next few days matter a lot. The Fed's decision on Wednesday will signal which story the committee trusts more - the inflation risk from energy and AI spending, or the potential productivity boom from AI. A rate hike this week would be a signal that the Fed is more worried about inflation than about choking off the AI boom.
A hold - or even a hint that rates could stay low - would be a different message. It would say the Fed is betting on productivity.
The tension is not going away. The Fed must decide which force it trusts more, and that call will ripple through your portfolio for months.
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