As of 9:01 a.m. in Singapore, gold was valued at $4,010.81 per ounce. That is basically flat from where it has been hovering in recent weeks - but it came after a rough stretch. The metal lost more than 2% the previous week, and the second quarter was even worse. From April to June, gold fell 14%, marking its most severe quarterly decline since 2013.
Oil told a completely different story. Following the weekend clash, Brent crude surged past $90 per barrel. That is a big move for energy markets.
So why did gold stay calm? The answer has less to do with the Middle East and more to do with what the Federal Reserve might do next.
Gold normally loves chaos. When tensions spike, investors buy it as a safe place to park money. But this time something else is competing for attention: the fear that the Fed could raise interest rates again.
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Rising interest rates create a disadvantage for gold, which yields no income.
Global X ETFs analyst Justin Lin said gold's muted response to the oil surge "reflects some investor apathy around geopolitics" and shifts attention to the Fed's rates decision. "Yields are only marginally higher over the weekend despite the significant escalation in the Middle East, which is probably why gold has been quite stable," he said.
The worry is that higher oil prices could feed inflation. This dynamic is not new - gold has historically struggled when the Fed prioritizes inflation control, and the 14% quarterly plunge mirrors similar episodes in 2013 when the central bank signaled policy tightening. Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack has already voiced concern about high inflation. If the Fed tightens policy to fight it, gold tends to suffer.
Why does it matter? Even a spike in oil prices from the escalation in the Middle East could not reverse that trend.
The big question mark is the Fed. That is not a done deal, but it is a strong signal.
On top of that, the U.S.-Iran conflict has no clear end in sight. As tensions intensify, President Donald Trump has not commented on his approach to Iran, leaving the final outcome for both sides more uncertain than ever. The weekend assaults included an attack on a crucial oil installation in Kuwait, along with the targeting of vessels trying to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran declared that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is now effectively void, raising the chance of even greater disruptions to vital energy flows through the narrow waterway. The Strait is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, and any sustained disruption could quickly push energy prices higher, feeding inflationary pressures.
If energy prices keep climbing, the inflation pressure on the Fed only gets worse. Higher energy costs have sparked worries that the Fed might tighten monetary policy, although weak U.S. economic indicators make a near-term rate hike improbable.
For investors, that means gold is stuck between two forces. Geopolitical chaos could push it higher. Higher rates could push it lower. Right now, based on the muted reaction to the oil spike, the focus on the Fed's rates decision is the dominant driver.
The bottom line: gold is not acting like a panic button anymore. Its price is more influenced by rate expectations than by geopolitical tensions. If you own gold or are thinking about it, keep an eye on the Fed's next move - because that, more than any missile strike, will decide where the price goes next.
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