The U.S. is not easing up. Late Sunday, American forces launched their ninth consecutive night of attacks against Iran, according to U.S. Central Command. The goal is to destroy Iran's ability to hit commercial ships trying to move oil and goods through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that carried roughly one-fifth of the world's oil traffic before the war.
This campaign started after the U.S. and Israel hit Iran on February 28, 2026. Since then, the fighting has only gotten worse. On Sunday, the U.S. military reported that a third soldier died during recent engagements with Iranian forces, and that they found unidentified remains in Jordan following a report of a missing service member, pushing the total American fatalities in the conflict - now nearly five months old - to 17. Iran's government reported on Sunday that at least 50 individuals have died and over 500 have been injured as a result of the latest U.S. attacks this month.
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Both sides have stepped up their military operations in the area, raising concerns about a full-scale conflict, as the U.S. and Iran trade accusations of breaching the June memorandum of understanding. Michael Feller, who is the chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy, commented: "The memorandum said little about how disputed incidents would be investigated or how a breach in one area would affect obligations elsewhere." As a result, the initial major disagreement rapidly turned into a debate about whether the accord was still in effect, he said.
Markets are paying attention. Those moves are modest for a single session, but they come on top of a longer run-up that has already put pressure on gas stations and shipping costs.
The real story is on the water. Before the conflict started, roughly 20 million barrels of crude and refined products moved through the Strait of Hormuz each day. Now, Energy Secretary Chris Wright says that number is about 14 million barrels a day - roughly two-thirds of the pre-war flow. "Not 100 percent yet, but two-thirds of flow right now," Wright said.
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler tracks the actual ship passages, and their numbers tell a similar story. Transit through the Hormuz strait has fallen to its lowest point in three weeks as hostilities have resumed.
That drop is a warning sign. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flowed prior to the conflict, has turned into the main battlefield of the war. With no clear off-ramp in the memorandum, the situation could get worse before it gets better.
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