Following a surge in Iranian assaults on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, satellite imagery reviewed by Bloomberg reveals that Saudi Arabia's crude shipments from the Persian Gulf have significantly declined. This demonstrates that Iran is once again disrupting supply routes. On Wednesday, the most recent date for which Sentinel 1 satellite images were available, only one tanker was docked at the kingdom's key export facilities in the Gulf.
Following a brief uptick in operations from June 26 to July 7, the berths have been mostly empty. Among its neighbors, Saudi Arabia is the least dependent on Persian Gulf shipping because it has the greatest ability to bypass the Hormuz strait via its Red Sea coast.
The United Nations maritime agency issued a severe navigation warning on Wednesday, stating that the Strait of Hormuz is now too hazardous for ships to cross, one of the most serious alerts since the US-Iran interim peace agreement fell apart.
The conflict has caused a rise in so-called 'dark' shipping, where tankers switch off their transponders to avoid detection. Satellite imagery provides a partial view of this activity, offering better insight than digital ship tracking into the rate and volume of crude exports from ports.
At the start of the Iran war, traffic through the waterway plummeted, forcing major producers in the region to cut output because they could not find tankers to transport their oil, leading to filled storage facilities. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings from the Persian Gulf about two weeks after a provisional accord was reached, but that recovery has since dissipated.
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Since the accord was reached, Iran has struck nine commercial ships, five of which were very large crude carriers. As a result, observable traffic through the strait has once again slowed significantly, raising the possibility that some producers may need to reduce exports from the region.
Bloomberg has been gathering satellite images since January to track vessel activity at major loading points in five Gulf nations, including Kuwait, and contrast them with pre-war benchmarks.
Rory Johnston, who studies oil markets and runs Commodity Context, said, "We had a really promising trajectory, and it collapsed almost as quickly. Everything's moving in the wrong direction right now."
Data indicates that Iraq's crude shipments also seem to have dropped drastically, whereas the UAE's operations stayed consistent through Monday. The next satellite overflights are expected within 48 hours, which will indicate whether recent attacks on two UAE tankers have impacted Abu Dhabi's ability to move crude through the strait. Producers can time loadings to avoid satellite passes, so even satellite data are not completely accurate.
Iraq rebooted its Gulf exports quicker than its neighbor, probably because it does not have the alternative of a Red Sea coastline, which Saudi Arabia uses to reroute roughly two-thirds of its earlier Gulf exports. Iraq depends nearly exclusively on the Basra Oil Terminal situated at the Gulf's northern tip for its crude oil exports.
But Iraq soon faced a scarcity of vessels to carry its crude, compelling it to reduce output once more due to constrained exports. On Monday, Kuwait was still fairly busy loading oil, though that was prior to the recent strikes on two UAE tankers. Meanwhile, Iran's export loadings seem to have plummeted.
A spokesperson for Iraq's oil ministry, Salim Al-Rikabi, stated via text message that "the uncertain situation at Hormuz is causing the nation's exports to fluctuate."
Producers across the region either did not respond to calls and emails or did not respond immediately.
Satellite data indicates that certain vessels deactivate their transponders during port calls in the region, probably to evade detection when trying to leave the Persian Gulf.
AIS data from tankers indicates minimal activity at Kuwait and only modest activity in the UAE relative to what satellite images reveal.
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