Australia's spring selling season is gathering pace, but with a softer tone than usual. Property researcher Cotality counted close to 1,600 capital-city auctions this weekend, an increase on the prior week. Even so, auction numbers sat roughly 34% under the level of a year earlier. Clearance improved to 58.5%, the strongest read in 19 weeks, yet still trails last year, when Lawless noted that nearly three quarters of auctioned homes were selling.
The softer conditions come on the heels of May's government property tax revisions alongside three interest-rate increases from the Reserve Bank. Cotality's measure of home values has fallen in each of the five months through August, leaving prices 3.6% below their March high.
"The spring pattern of more stock coming to market is taking shape, albeit at lower levels than a year ago," said Tim Lawless, research director at Cotality. He added that fewer auctions than a year ago stem from "fewer new listings coming to market," and from more vendors choosing private-treaty sales while clearance rates remain low. Lawless anticipates activity picking up in the short run - over 1,900 homes are on the auction calendar for next week - before easing back toward late September.
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Bloomberg Economics' James McIntyre sees more price weakness ahead: "We expect prices to fall further in coming months, with another RBA hike still a risk. Housing cycles average 11 months from peak to trough, pointing to declines into the first quarter of 2027." For everyday buyers and sellers, that mix - a short burst of spring activity alongside softer prices and rate uncertainty - sets the tone for negotiations and timing through the next few months.
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