Russia is at war, sanctioned, and just posted some of its strongest oil export numbers of 2026. The Iran war is the reason.
Four-week shipments hit 3.66 million barrels a day through May 24, topping any yearly average since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The boost has nothing to do with Russia drilling more. It's coming from buyers who suddenly have fewer places to source their crude.
India is now pulling in close to 1.85 million barrels a day of Russian crude, roughly 70% more than it was taking in February before US and Israeli forces hit Iran.
The math is simple for Indian refiners. Russian barrels are still trading at a discount to global benchmarks, and India's refining industry runs almost entirely on imported oil.
Russian Urals crude has been trading at a meaningful discount to Brent in recent weeks. That gap is wide enough to make the logistics and political risk worth it for refiners in Delhi and Mumbai.
Trump gave Moscow another lift by waiving sanctions on its crude shipments. The waiver made it easier for Indian refiners to load up without their banks getting cold feet on every transaction.
Prices are climbing alongside the volumes, with Russian Pacific crude now trading above $97 a barrel. Baltic and Black Sea grades are both ticking higher too.
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Early in the conflict, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, choking off about 15 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude.
The strait normally carries about a fifth of global oil supply, making it the most important chokepoint in the energy market.
Only about a third of the lost supply found other routes, leaving refiners across Asia hunting for any barrels they could get their hands on.
Russia was ready to fill the gap, with four-week shipments now running well above first-quarter levels and Russian oil at sea up roughly 20% since mid-April.
Almost all of those barrels are on tankers moving toward buyers, with idling ships now the exception rather than the rule.
Ukraine's drones. For most of the year, Kyiv targeted Russia's export ports to choke off oil revenue at the source.
Lately the focus has shifted to refineries. Last week, drones hit plants at Yaroslavl, Ryazan, and Nizhny Novgorod - a combined 1 million barrels a day of processing capacity.
Why it matters: When refineries get hit, less crude gets burned at home, leaving more available to ship overseas - which is exactly what's happening right now.
Asian refining margins are another tell. If those start sliding, it means refiners are getting squeezed and may have to cut back on Russian buying.
If Ukraine swings back to export terminals, the math flips fast. For now, Moscow is moving every barrel it can.
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