Peru's economy hit a rough patch in May. That was a big miss. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected growth of 3.1%.
The slowdown was even sharper compared to April. The month before, the economy expanded by 3.7%. From April to May, the index actually shrank by 1.11% on a month-over-month basis.
The first five months of 2026 still show solid growth overall at 3.2%. But May was a clear stumble.
Despite the miss, Peru's economy continues to draw support from strong copper exports and steady demand from China. The mining sector has remained resilient, helping to cushion the blow from the sharp declines in fishing and manufacturing. Many analysts expect growth to rebound in the second half of the year once the temporary disruptions run their course.
Two industries did most of the damage. Two main factors drove the downturn: elevated ocean swells caused by stronger winds hampered the fishing season, and authorities prohibited anchovy harvesting starting in May due to warmer Pacific waters that left fish populations at risk.
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The two sectors together explain the bulk of the miss.
Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist at Bloomberg Economics, said, "Underlying domestic demand continued to expand in Peru while temporary supply-side disruptions tempered activity growth in May. The data remain consistent with an economy running above potential and trending up over the rest of 2026. High copper prices and strong external demand still support the outlook, with an added boost further out from expectations of more market-friendly policies from incoming President Keiko Fujimori."
Officials anticipate that inflation will move back into the 1% to 3% target band as short-lived price spikes in food and energy subside.
Meanwhile, the job market keeps improving.
There is also a political shift worth watching. In June, business sentiment rose following the victory of pro-business candidate Keiko Fujimori in the presidential race. Fujimori's administration is set to be sworn in on July 28.
Peru's economy has long relied on its mining sector, particularly copper, which accounts for a significant share of exports. The recent disruptions in fishing are largely seasonal and weather-related, and economists expect a rebound in the second half of the year as conditions normalize. The incoming Fujimori administration's pro-business stance could further stimulate investment, particularly in mining and energy.
The incoming government is expected to prioritize economic reforms, including tax incentives for mining investment and efforts to reduce bureaucratic hurdles. These policies could further bolster investor confidence and support the recovery in the second half of the year. Combined with resilient copper exports and steady demand from China, Peru's economy appears well-positioned to resume stronger growth once the temporary fishing and manufacturing disruptions fade.
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