The first sign was easy to write off. In the 2024-25 cycle, foreign applicants fell just 1% from the previous year, and many schools treated it as a fluke.
The new data does not look like a fluke. Common App, the main online application platform used by many US colleges, released a report on August 20 showing about 10% fewer international students applying this fall. Nearly 16,000 fewer students sent in a US application. The report covers 1,146 schools, about 4% more than last year, and applications still came up short.
Common App senior data scientist Rodney Hughes said the decline is the largest one-year foreign drop his team has tracked since 2013. When asked why so many students were staying away, he pointed straight at the front door.
Student visa rules changed in a serious way under the Trump administration. It is now harder for a student who comes on a visa to change majors, transfer schools, or stay in the country after graduation. That adds real hesitation.
"If it's harder to get a visa, that might make it less likely that students apply," Hughes said.
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Geography matters too. Applications from Asia and Africa fell by double digits. European applicants dropped 4%, ending a run of yearly gains, helped by French and German universities actively recruiting in the US.
American students, meanwhile, did not lose interest. US applicants rose 4%, helped a lot by the Southwest region, which jumped 9%.
The number of high schoolers who sent in scores rose 11%, while the number who skipped those questions fell 5%.
"Test scores certainly seem to be in vogue," Hughes said.
Yale, Columbia, and Princeton are among the schools that brought test requirements back after nearly five years of optional. The share of colleges requiring a score is now 5%, small but up from 4% last year. In 2019, it was 55%.
The University of California system has not used test scores since 2019, and the debate has grown there again. The administration has called test-waived admissions a way to sideline lower-income or minority applicants, which it views as illegal.
The drop in foreign students is not the same as an empty seat. More than 1.5 million students applied through Common App this year, up 2%. The change is who is applying, not demand.
A few new groups are taking off:
Roughly 848,000 women applied, up 3%, while 678,000 men applied too. A college-bound student from somewhere in the US is no longer a rare thing. The applicant pool is changing, and American high schoolers are showing up.
For a family paying for college, the applicant pool is more domestic, test scores are back, and the international students who often paid full tuition are a smaller share of the entering class. Less selective colleges, the type that depend on tuition revenue to balance their budgets, are most at risk. For students, that could mean more pressure on financial aid and a different mix of classmates than in recent years. The international flow will not stop, but it is being told to think twice about the American school dream.
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