The lock-in effect is not just a theory.
You can see it right in the April sales data. Sales barely moved, even as more homes hit the market.
That is a market stuck in amber. And it is what a frozen market looks like up close.
Existing-home sales ran at a 4.02 million yearly pace in April. That was up just 0.2% from the month before.
For a spring market, that is a shrug. Spring is usually the busy season.
Prices went the other way. The median price rose to $417,700.
That marks the 34th month in a row of year-over-year price gains. Prices kept climbing even as sales crawled.
That combo is unusual. Prices and sales normally move together, not apart.
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The supply side is slowly thawing. Inventory rose to 1.47 million homes.
That is enough to last 4.4 months at the current pace. A balanced market usually runs near six months.
So this is still tight. More listings showed up, but buyers facing 6%-plus rates did not rush in to meet them.
The map was uneven, too. Sales rose in the South and Midwest, held flat in the Northeast, and slipped in the West.
The West is also the priciest region. Its median price sat near $619,600 in April.
The Northeast was not far behind, near $510,800. The Midwest stayed the cheapest big region by a wide margin.
Homes are sitting a bit longer now, about 32 days on the market. That is up from 29 days a year ago.
First-time buyers made up roughly a third of sales. Cash deals were about a quarter of the action.
The wild bidding wars have cooled off. But what homes cost is still the wall, and cheaper money is the only thing that knocks it down.
Investors and second-home buyers made up about 16% of sales. That share actually slipped from the month before.
One bright spot helped a little. Affordability improved from a year ago, as pay growth edged past price gains.
One gauge backs that up. It rose to 110.6 from 101.4 a year earlier, where a higher reading means homes are easier to afford.
Still, easier is not the same as easy. The typical home is out of reach for many first-time buyers, and cash buyers who skip the rate hold the edge.
Watch whether inventory keeps building into summer. If listings rise while sales stay flat, the freeze is built in, not just a season.
The other thing to track is rates. If loans get cheaper, some frozen sellers may finally list.
Until then, expect more of the same. Slow sales, a slow thaw, and sticky prices.
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