China Passenger Car Export Growth Seen Cooling to 10% in 2027

What PCA said and why

China's Passenger Car Association signaled the surge in car exports this year will not last. "Exports will fall from the supercharged growth seen this year to a medium to fast pace next year," Secretary General Cui Dongshu said Monday, adding that growth is seen easing to 10% in 2027. The group has forecasts in place for both 2026 and 2027.

Cui tied the expected cooldown to key destinations tightening access by lifting tariffs or limiting volumes. That lines up with what is happening on the ground, where regulators in the European Union, Thailand and Brazil are putting in place higher duties or quota measures aimed at curbing the flow of Chinese cars. Even so, he said demand from the Middle East remains firm and will likely carry a big share of next year's gains.

The numbers behind the shift

PCA data show exports jumped 75% over the first ten months of the year. Within that, shipments of fully electric models rose 124%, and deliveries of plug-in hybrids plus extended-range EVs jumped 168% to 1.77 million units.

At home, the story is weaker. October marked the 13th straight monthly drop for passenger vehicle deliveries, down 27% to 1.64 million, despite autumn typically being a busy buying season. Buyers never fully bounced back after subsidies were scaled down and the economy slowed. Hybrid and electric demand has also softened, but their share of new sales kept climbing, reaching 67% last month. "The typical annual bump this time of year commonly known as 'Golden September and Silver October have basically disappeared,'" Cui said. "This may become a norm in the future."

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What it could mean for your portfolio

Exports have been the shock absorber for China's automakers as domestic sales slid. A slower pace abroad would thin that cushion, even if Middle East demand stays supportive next year. The bottom line: the mix that buoyed revenue this year could look tougher as trade barriers rise and PCA's slower growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 approaches.

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