Europe shut a lot of its own refineries over the years. The plan was simple: buy cheaper fuel from abroad and ship it in.
That plan works until the ships slow down. Right now, they are.
Europe makes less of its own fuel than it once did. So it leans on imports from the Middle East and Asia.
About a fifth of its jet fuel comes from the Gulf. That works fine when the world is calm.
It is not calm right now. Two wars are pulling fuel off the market at once.
Asia cannot easily fill the hole. Refiners there are short on crude and busy serving their own needs.
The numbers show the strain. Global jet fuel exports fell to 1.3 million barrels a day in April.
That is down about 30% from a year earlier. Less supply tends to push prices up, and drivers feel that first.
Picture a busy airport. Now take away a third of its runways overnight.
The planes still need to land. There is just far less room for them.
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Russia used to be a top fuel supplier. Then Ukrainian drones hit its refineries hard.
Russian output fell in April to its lowest level since 2009. To guard its own supply, Moscow may halt jet fuel exports for a month or two.
The drop is big enough to move forecasts. The IEA now sees Russian fuel output about 150,000 barrels a day lower this year.
This reaches well past Russia. The country ships out about 40% of the diesel it makes.
Diesel faces a second hit at the same time. New EU rules block fuel made from Russian crude, even when it comes through other countries.
That shift has been fast. Europe bought 29.9 million tons of Russian diesel in 2022.
By 2024, that fell to just 2.9 million tons. The Middle East is the other weak spot.
Refineries in China, South Korea, and India also ship fuel to Europe. But they run on Gulf crude, and that crude is harder to get.
Europe's jet fuel stocks may fall below the IEA's 23-day safety line in June. That is right as summer travel peaks.
The UK looks most at risk. It buys much of its fuel from abroad.
Diesel matters just as much here. It moves the trucks and trains that keep store shelves full.
Energy prices touch far more than airlines. They hit factory costs and the goods we buy.
Europe bet it could always buy fuel when it needed it. This summer puts that bet to the test.
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