Norway's giant oil fund, run by Norges Bank Investment Management, finished the third quarter down 0.5%. Equities inched up 0.5%, but fixed income fell 3.5%, leaving the overall result in the red as higher interest rates bit.
It was the second down quarter out of the past three. Versus its yardstick from Norway's Finance Ministry, the fund lagged by 0.18 percentage points.
The portfolio's market value shrank by 670 billion kroner in the quarter. A stronger krone knocked 472 billion kroner off the tally and investments detracted 278 billion kroner, while 80 billion kroner of inflows provided a cushion.
A little over one quarter of the fund sits in fixed income, and a bit more than half of that bond slice is in US securities, deputy CEO Trond Grande said. The current mandate says 70% of bond holdings must be in sovereign debt.
NBIM has recommended lowering sovereign holdings - such as US Treasuries - to 50% of its fixed-income allocation, freeing capacity for higher-risk credit aimed at boosting returns. "There's really no urgency around such decisions" because they reflect a long-term strategy rather than a short-term move, he said.
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"Government debt has become a more global phenomenon," Grande said, noting it was once centered in only a few countries but is now more widespread. For long-term investors, he said, the added risk shows up as higher yields, which are "a good thing," though any erosion of confidence in public finances is "absolutely" worrisome.
He also flagged the tradeoff for stocks: "Higher yields, obviously, especially in the long run, is not good for stocks," while adding, "But the economic growth is still healthy." The 0.5% equity gain in Q3 stood in sharp contrast to the 16% surge in Q2. "Nothing grows into the sky.
The fund holds stakes in more than 7,200 companies worldwide and was created in the 1990s to invest Norway's petroleum wealth abroad. Given how much mega-cap tech drives global indexes, its biggest positions include Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. Grande said the fund is slightly underweight technology stocks.
Unlisted real estate returned 0.4% in the quarter, while unlisted renewable-energy infrastructure returned 7.5%.
An ethics overhaul is also on the table after controversy over investments tied to the war in Gaza. This month, a committee appointed by the government put forward recommendations for a new framework that is now open for public comment, and the government aims for spring 2027 as the time to bring its conclusions before parliament.
Higher yields push down bond prices today but raise future income, and they also weigh on stock valuations. With NBIM seeking fewer government bonds and more credit risk, the world's largest fund is positioning for that rate backdrop. If you are heavy in rate-sensitive assets or concentrated in AI leaders that dominate benchmarks, note that even this scale player is slightly underweight tech and is reworking its bond mix.
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