David Eby kicked off the race asking voters to back him to take on a Trump-driven trade fight, then moved taxes on high earners to center stage. He wants to raise rates on income above roughly C$190,000 ($133,800) and create a new tier for earnings over C$1 million. With federal taxes included, the top marginal personal rate would reach 57.5%.
Eby defends the plan as a modest lift on those best able to pay, saying it would touch only 4% of BC income earners, and the NDP projects it will raise C$1 billion a year by 2028-29. Supporters frame the move as a way to bolster public finances and services, but the debate has become a campaign flashpoint.
BC's finances have swung hard since Eby took office in 2022. Skeptics question the haul from the tax: University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates about C$700 million annually if behavior does not change, dropping to roughly C$200 million after migration and tax planning are considered. Even so, on broader measures that tally personal, corporate, consumption and property taxes, BC would still be among Canada's lower-tax provinces, though higher earners tend to react more to rate hikes.
"I'm not sure the best strategy is to beat up on some people who are doing well here," Milligan said. Compared with neighbors, Tombe says BC's top rate would sit roughly 10 percentage points above Alberta's and more than 20 points higher than Washington state's, creating an incentive for individuals to move south or for firms to consider relocating to avoid having to raise gross pay to compensate. As Milligan put it, "BC's strength is not just the rocks and the trees, but also the people we have here."
Voting day is Oct. 24, and the forecast shows probable seat ranges of NDP 27-51, Conservatives 40-65 and Greens 1-3, with outcomes near the middle more likely than the extremes. Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, says her polling suggests voters view the snap as unnecessary and opportunistic, and that Doerkson quickly blunted Eby's attempt to link him to Trump. She has not yet polled on the tax specifics but says the idea could alienate a core NDP bloc: educated professionals in their 30s and 40s in the Vancouver region, where affordability is tight. She has heard people say they're professionals with mortgages, young kids, and households to run.
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The campaign is unfolding with a proposed 57.5% top marginal rate on the table and a record deficit looming, while rivals argue over growth, talent and investment. Backers promise more funding for services, but independent estimates suggest the revenue may be lower once people respond. Voters are fixated on day-to-day costs like mortgages and healthcare, and that focus will shape what policies emerge after ballots are counted. If you live or work in BC, watch the result and the final form of any tax bill, because that will influence take-home pay, housing choices and the province's growth path in the years ahead.
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