The greenback just notched its best week since early summer. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 1.1% across the week, consolidating around its 200‑day moving average on Wednesday and Thursday before finishing just above that marker on Friday. Historically, closing above the 200‑day has tended to invite more follow‑through, as seen in March and June when similar breakouts preceded additional gains.
The rally would have been even bigger. The index backed away from its intraday peak when the yen recovered on news that the Bank of Japan had conducted a rate check, an action often seen as signaling possible intervention. As a result, the advance fell short of what might have been the biggest weekly gain since the Iran War began in March.
The catalyst was the Fed's shift back into hiking mode after more than three years on hold, paired with a clear anti‑inflation message that more increases are on the table. JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, and Brown Brothers Harriman said that move cleared what they viewed as the main obstacle to a stronger dollar.
Heading into the decision, speculative traders, including asset managers and other non‑commercial participants, had been dialing back bullish dollar positions for the seventh consecutive week through Sept. 15, per Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures compiled by Bloomberg. Some remain hesitant. Brown Brothers Harriman's London‑based global markets strategy chief, Elias Haddad, said, "Tightening by other major central banks limits policy divergence and suggests the dollar is unlikely to make new cyclical highs,"
Even so, Haddad noted the US growth edge remains notable. He said the September S&P Global PMI prints due next week will likely show the US holding its lead over the Eurozone, the UK and Japan. JPMorgan currency analyst Pat Locke added that, before this week's meeting, the dollar looked undervalued by roughly 2% to 4% on several yardsticks, including rate differentials, and that the prospect of more hikes is "prompting a catch-up trade, particularly versus low-yielding currencies."
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Options markets are leaning toward a mildly firmer dollar over the next month, based on risk‑reversal pricing, but not by enough to push the index to a fresh high for the year. The gauge still sits about 1.9% below its 2026 peak from June 24. If the US growth premium holds and the Fed keeps the door open to more tightening, that can support the currency, especially against low‑yielders.
On the flip side, if other central banks keep tightening too, that narrows the policy gap and can cap how far the dollar runs. Translation for your budget and travel plans: a sturdier dollar tempers imported inflation and can stretch your spending abroad, but it also bites into overseas holdings when you bring them back home.
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