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Citi turns bullish on StubHub, trims target but still sees upside

Nate Gregory
Published Sep 18, 2026
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Summary:
  • Citi's Jason Bazinet lifted StubHub to a buy from neutral and lowered his target to $7 from $9, which he says is still about an 18% lift from Thursday's close.
  • He expects adjusted EBITDA to beat analysts' forecasts and full-year earnings to land near the high end of guidance, and he projects $10.9 billion in 2026 gross merchandise sales.
  • Shares rose 3.8% Friday; last tick was 5.97 at 3:21 PM EDT, up 0.42%. The stock has fallen 51% so far this year.

Why Citi is leaning in

Citi moved StubHub to a buy while shaving the target to 7 dollars from 9. Even with the lower target, Bazinet said the setup still implies roughly an 18% gain from Thursday's finish. He wrote that adjusted EBITDA should come in ahead of the Street and that full-year earnings are likely to come in close to the upper bound of the company's outlook.

What is driving the outlook

Bazinet tied the stronger view to a surge in app activity. He pointed out that record levels for weekly app download counts coincided with the World Cup in 2Q26, and said 3Q26 quarter to date has run even hotter. The tally was about 1.2 million downloads in the second quarter, with expectations for roughly 1.4 million in the third quarter and about 0.8 million in the fourth. He also sees StubHub delivering $10.9 billion in gross merchandise sales in 2026 - a mark he says sits above the firm's guidance.

Demand tailwinds and market position

Bazinet highlighted that StubHub is the most used online ticket resale platform, with about 40% share. The company has been riding a busy summer sports calendar and healthy concert demand. Earlier this year, StubHub told CNBC it is seeing the "K-shaped economy" pattern in live music, where big events are thriving while smaller shows lag.

A thoughtful approach helps protect and grow your savings over time. Join Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh on September 29th for a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, where he shows how we're spotting investment opportunities as the dollar falls. Save your spot.

What it means for your money

The stock climbed 3.8% on the day and, if it ends in the green, that would be a third straight daily gain. Last trade was 5.97 at 3:21 PM EDT, up 0.02 or 0.42%. Even so, shares are still down 51% year to date. If Citi's call proves right, the story from here hinges on whether those app download gains and event tailwinds keep translating into the earnings track Bazinet is sketching out.

Staying steady with a plan lets your money work toward long term goals. Our CEO Jaspreet Singh is hosting a FREE live investor workshop, How to Profit From A Dollar That's Losing its Value, on September 29th. Sign up free to join him live.

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Blogs

September 17, 2026
Why America Bailed Out the Yen: The Japan Carry Trade, the Dollar and Your Mortgage Rate
By Milena Thomas
  • In July 2026 the US sent money to steady the yen because Japan is the largest foreign owner of US debt, and Washington needs Japan to keep lending.
  • For decades the Japan carry trade let Wall Street borrow yen at essentially 0% and pour it into US stocks, real estate and Treasuries, and rising Japanese rates are shutting that off.
  • A weaker yen means fewer buyers for the dollar and for US debt, which pushes Treasury rates up and drags mortgage, car loan and credit card rates up with them.
Read More
September 16, 2026
Treasury Yields Are Spiking Because Lenders Are Backing Away From U.S. Debt
By Jackson Moreland
  • The U.S. is paying its highest 30-year borrowing rate in about two decades because its biggest lenders, the Fed, foreign governments, and banks, are all pulling back from Treasuries.
  • Every mortgage, car loan, credit card, and business loan is priced off the 10-year Treasury yield, so when Washington pays more to borrow, so do you.
  • With about $40 trillion of debt against a $32 trillion economy, the country either outgrows its debt or slides into a doom loop, and investors need a plan for both.
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September 15, 2026
Fiat Currency Runs on Trust, and the World Just Stopped Trusting the Dollar
By Nate Gregory
  • Gold has overtaken US treasuries as the world's top reserve asset, and central banks are now buying less US debt and more gold.
  • The US dollar is a fiat currency, meaning it's backed by a promise rather than gold, so it loses value when fewer countries want to hold it.
  • Whether the US economy or its national debt grows faster from here decides which assets stand to benefit next.
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September 14, 2026
Why RAM Prices Are Soaring - and Where the Money Is Moving
By Cierra Seay
  • Memory chips - the RAM inside phones, laptops, fridges, and trucks - are in a shortage Tim Cook called a 100-year flood, and some memory prices have climbed about 90% in a single quarter.
  • Four forces hit at once: AI demand, a production shutdown in 2023, build times that push any fix to 2028 at the earliest, and a bombed helium plant in Qatar.
  • The last two supply shocks ended in aggressive Fed rate hikes and market drops of around 45% and 20%, and this time Washington is spending heavily to bring memory production home.
Read More
September 11, 2026
How Is the Economy Doing? Washington Says It's Fixed, but the Numbers Don't Agree
By Nate Gregory
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the economy is fixed because lower earners' incomes are now rising faster than top earners'.
  • The Atlanta Fed and Bank of America show different numbers, and Hilton, Marriott, and McDonald's can't agree on what they're seeing either.
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Read More
September 10, 2026
US National Debt Hits $40 Trillion: Why the Economy Hasn't Collapsed Yet
By Nate Gregory
  • The US national debt crossed $40 trillion in 2026 and is growing faster than the economy. The debt to GDP ratio now sits at 125%, the highest outside the pandemic and higher than World War II.
  • On September 9, 2026, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rolled out an emergency plan for the government to lend money to itself. Ray Dalio now says the dollar has roughly three years before real pain.
  • Empires rarely default. They debase. Since 1971, median household income grew about 8x while houses grew 17x and the S&P 500 grew 360x, so investors got richer while workers fell behind.
Read More
September 9, 2026
Your 401k Is Fueling the AI Bubble
By Andre Savage
  • About $10 trillion of 401k money sits in a $77 trillion stock market, mostly through target date funds and S&P 500 funds. Roughly 30% of every S&P 500 dollar lands in five AI-heavy tech stocks.
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  • You only lock in an AI bubble loss if you sell. The 2022, 2020, 2008, and 2000 crashes were all buying windows for long-term investors, and the US-China AI race means government money could keep flowing in.
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September 9, 2026
What Is Wealth Preservation? How To Protect Your Money From Anything
By Nate Gregory
  • Wealth preservation is an investing strategy built around keeping the money you've already made instead of chasing growth.
  • It leans on assets that hold steady when markets fall - gold, Treasury bonds, and companies that keep earning through wars, crashes, and pandemics.
  • The tradeoff is real: you give up some upside, and the two key numbers to check are maximum drawdown and correlation to the market.
Read More
September 8, 2026
Why Is Everything So Expensive? Why Prices May Never Come Back Down
By Cierra Seay
  • Official inflation is 3.4% and prices are up 32% since 2020, but rent (41%), gas (47%), car insurance (64%) and ground beef (79%) all outran the 28% median wage.
  • The Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation on purpose. Rising prices push extra dollars to investors and shrink the real cost of a $40 trillion national debt.
  • Investors who simply owned the S&P 500 gained about 150% over the same six years, and the Fed's September 16 decision will show whether it protects the dollar or the economy first.
Read More
September 7, 2026
The U.S. Housing Market Just Flipped: Renting a Home Now Beats Buying One
By Kalbir Talwar
  • The US is in a buyer's market in 41 of the 50 largest metro areas, but prices sit near record highs and mortgage rates are close to 7%.
  • The same median house costs 27% more than it did in 2021 while the monthly payment costs 90% more, and incomes rose a little more than 10%.
  • A 2008-style crash is not showing up in the data, so the pressure is landing on buyers instead of prices.
Read More
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